Crude oil has fallen more than 50% since May of 2014. It is now approaching a 15 year supportive trend line that can be traced back to 1999. This line says that support may be found in the vicinity of $45-$47. This is also a price range OP has been mentioning on his tweets. As I write this, oil is trading at $48.26. We are very close.
However, we have not seen any price action that says the buyers are coming back. If this trend line does not hold, the next target will be $40.
As crude oil moves into these regions of significant support, the risk reward of shorting oil becomes less and less attractive. I will be looking for a bounce or some form of consolidation over the next few weeks.