Oil Bubble, Really?

Published on October 26, 2007

Oil Bubble, Really?

October 26, 2007

(for details pls visit www.OptionPundit.net)

Here is a post on Market watch by Dr Irwin Kellner on Oct 22, 2007 stating look for oil prices to plummet. I have respect for Dr Irwin, but in this case I disagree with him. I think my questions to bear are still valid. Since that “Bearish” report of Credit Suisse, Oil is up >+30%, in little less then 6months. Short term fluctuations are part of the trading world, but for long run I don’t think that Oil has topped just yet, not at least till it reaches $100 mark.

Of course, when trading Oil, I am bullish on renewable energy sources as well. One of my preferred ones, I like Brazilian Cosan (CZZ) for both Sugar (the commodity) and Ethanol (Read it Oil).

But hey, be careful of this market. Any errant bull can be quickly grabbed for his meat by bears. Just have a look at VDSI and SLB. Why am I reinforcing this point, there are many high fliers and stock market is not liking any “miss” this quarter. If a “growth” company is not meeting “whispers”, it is going to be disastrous for its stock price. Some of the name on my watch list includes DRYS, FSLR, FWLT, etc. They may or may not falter, but I am watching them.

Did you notice WCG, it’s been long time seeing something as wonderful as this (I remember Enron).

Oh BTW, Fed is announcing Rate cut (oops I am so sure) next week and I may be in full cash before the announcement. Other then gold, I might close all my portfolios before announcement. Why, no logic except that my sixth sense advises so this time (Buy on anticipation and Sell on News), but hey I it has been slippery before so I am willing to be proven wrong.

Till then, I remain, with the Oil Bulls,

Profitable trading, OP

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