Harley Davidson (HOG), Run Away or Ride

Harley Davidson (HOG) will be announcing results prior to market open tomorrow. The expectation is to deliver $0.52/share.

While it can always turn tables around to beat earnings (via price increase etc), I would like to play bearish on this. Fine, I agree that it has a very loyalist customer base, the expectations are already low and all that. But consumer spending going downhill, big ticket items on hold and “needs” taking over “wants”, I don’t expect Harley to announce wonderful results. I don’t have enough information to make comments on how the financial arm doing but my gut says it might not be doing to well either.

(You may want to sign-up for the Basic Membership (Free until Dec 2009) that I use to share free trade alerts for registered members)

Bottom line, I am not positive about HOG announcing a great set of results and therefore will look for bearish trades (either vertical or the backspread, double calendar is also an option).

JP Morgan (JPM) is another major company to announce its scorecard tomorrow. It’s anybody’s guess on how are they going to report especially with the developments that took place last week. Goldman (GS) reported solid numbers, inferring from that we might see positivity from JP, but hey, I have no intentions to play this one.

Disclaimer– As of this writing, I own the mutiple bearish trades (and still have some open orders), but I may close it without any prior notice. If you do want to follow this trade, pls do your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser. There is not much time left for April expiration, should you decide to follow this trade, pls keep either a risk management plan in place or risk only the montey you are willing to lose 100%


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One response to “Harley Davidson (HOG), Run Away or Ride”

  1. […] it missed, doesn it matter? no, its shares rose 6.2 percent in premarket trading on Thursday.  My bearish trade is going to nose dive, but thankfully those are May’09 options, so I still have time to […]

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