Category: Option Trading

  • Priceline- How Did We Make Triple Digit Gains

    Backspread Option Trading Strategy is one of my favorite strategies when it comes to playing large move and when I am not so sure of the direction. I like to play it especially when I am biased about the direction but I don’t want to take unnecessary risk.

    I first introduced this spread to OP readers almost 3.5 years back and since then we have done a lot of trades using backspreads. Recent one is how we played Priceline (PCLN) earnings and netted with Several hundred % gains within a day. Here is what I wrote to OPNewsletter members before opening this speculative trade-

    I have purchased a PCLN Aug 240/250 Backspread for $1.68 average (Sell 1x Aug 240 and Buy Aug 2x 250), assume this will be 100% before you invest anything.

    The maximum loss (roughly $1,125) will be if a) PCLN is at 250 and b) Nothing is done to the trade till expiration. If you would like to know more about backspread, here is the link -> https://www.optionpundit.net/options-essentials/backspread-startegy-for-large-moves

    I expect PCLN to move ~10%, and I am directionally biased but I want to minimize my risk and hence playing it via backspread.

    The results – PCLN gapped up almost $42!! and continued to move-up throughout the day; the mid quoted price for our $1.68 Backspread was $20.3!! Some members were quick to book profit (which is a good thing to do) and closed it for $16, netting +814% gains on debit or 121% including margins. I sold it for $18.1 as I want to max out profits so closed it leg by leg, but then PCLN just kept on rising all the way to $286!! (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Another member played this earnings via Call Debit vertical spread and netted out with +450%. Below is a screen shot of my trades. As you will notice I purchased puts also assuming that PCLN might pullback after rising $50 in a day.

    Fantastic returns by any means. But OPNewsletter members include some very experienced traders who would like to know why we chose this strategy (and had to keep $1,000) margins, thus reducing our gains as opposed to verticals. Here is an exchange of words between two OPN Members (I took the liberty to cut & paste it from paid forum) that provides a lot of insights which you may not find elsewhere –

    I was running a bit too fast, sold for $16. Well, “only” 814% gain on debit or 121% on margin. Thanks OP!!!!!!!!

    OP, I was curious why you preferred the backspread. I understand that the main advantage of the backspread is that you can do it for even money or even credit, so even if you are wrong, you still can exit for breakeven or even small profit. However, in this case, we paid debit, so if PCLN tanked, we would probably lose most of the debit paid. Why is better than say simple bull spread?

    In the true spirit of learning while making money, I challenged my friend to think about it again and share what he find. Here are his thoughts-

    Well, as you wrote in your original post, backspread has the potential to make money in either direction, as you do it for credit. So even if you are wrong, you can still make money.

    But this is not true in our case since we did it for debit. Comparing profits with say 260/280 bull spread that Chak did for slightly higher debit (but no margin requirements), the backspread returned about 800-900% on debit and about 130% on margin, and bull spread returned about 500%. So return on debit was definitely better for backspread. If PCLN went down, both would probably lose most of the debit. I’m not sure what would happen if PCLN went to 250-260 as you expected.

    But again, the main point is that in our case backspread lost its main advantage because it was done for debit and not credit.

    And there here is the answer from another member who made 450% using verticals. Review for insights and the detailed work he has done before placing the trade. A good example of due diligence.

    Allow me to add to this why I did a debit call vertical. I was expecting about a 12% drop in volatility after earnings and only expected a 10% movement, as did OP. If this is your expectations, it paints a different picture. Both trades would have been up about $300 if we went up 10% to $253 (from $230). Based on debit, the backratio would have had a slightly larger percentage gain. Also, our breakevens for today would have been both around PCLN = $242. (Actually, the backratio would have been around $243, the vertical about $241.) But, due to the IV drop, the backratio would have lost money a lot quicker below the $240 level. If we didn’t move at all, the backratio would have incurred a full loss of the debit (-100% of debit), but the vertical would have only lost about 60%. A max loss of the debit would have been down around PCLN=210 for the vertical and 235 (above the closing price!) for the backratio.

    So, taking the -12% drop in IV and 10% expected move, I believed the vertical’s risk/reward was more attractive. Both were expected to make ~$300 if correct, but if wrong, the backratio incurred a max loss over much more of the PCLN range.

    That said, in the rare case that your 10% expected move turns into a 20% move, the backratio will do considerably better if you got the direction correct.

    So as you can see, there was a good reason for doing vertical debit spread and it paid out nicely for the money invested. This is really the true spirit of improving as a trader where you could look at each past trade and think what could have been better, is there something that can be learned.  Here is further discussion between the two members-

    Well, on hindsight, you could just go with 260 calls for similar debit (about 2.50) and have 900% return. 270 calls would risk only 1.30 and give you 1,300% return. Of course hindsight is always 20/20, but most of those trades would risk only relatively small amount for potential of making few hundred percent.

    Thoughts from 2nd member to this-

    I believe the analysis was done based on a 10% move (see OP’s original post). The $2.50 260 call would have been worth about $400 assuming a move to 253. Still a good trade, and quite possibly better than the other 2 trades.

    As a true option trader, the learning never stops. As someone said, If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. We made real gains on this trade, but the discussion didn’t stop there.  I am proud of OPN community as it challenges the thoughts and through those conversations, we discover many more opportunities. Both the members gave me some ideas to think about when placing the trades in future. (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Here are my thoughts on why I chose backspread-

    I expected a +10% move, but the key difference was that I also wanted to have room for upside what if I am correct and what if there is a huge short squeeze shortly after the positive announcement. A good Backspread would be making money even if the underlying moves against. But here in this trade, as I originally mentioned I was directionally bias but wanted to reduce my exposure while maximize gains if I am correct. What essentially this Backspread did was to purchase a 250 call but financed most of the cost via selling a 240/250 bear call spread. Additionally, PCLN’s intraday moves are also fairly large from a absolute $ perspective and we still had 15 days time left to salvage the trade if needed.

    Bottomline– Verticals, straight calls or backspread are all different strategies suited for different option traders. All have a role to play as long as are clear on objective of each one.

    Porfitable Trading and Learning

    OP @InvesCafe

  • Opportunities Abound, Either Way

    For the past few days, Markets have shown amazing resilience to make a comeback from triple digit losses (I am referring to Dow) netting out no significant change. But one thing is for sure, intraday moves are becoming larger.  So pls start to pay close attention to market internals. I don’t know which direction markets are headed, but what I sense is a nervousness on the part of market participants. Neither bull nor the bears want to take any strong position. As I mentioned earlier, Ms Vega is here to stay for while and it’s better that I start to pay more attention to her.

    I haven’t seen wider media mentioning an important change that has occurred and is continuously changing option trading landscape, and it is introduction on weekly options. Sometimes, opportunities are better without much fanfare. Earlier what used to be a monthly opportunity, is now being offered 4x. Welcome to the amazing world of weekly options.

    The introduction of weekly has offered options traders far more opportunities. Albeit, it is a double edged sword. If not managed properly, it is also a recipe to lose money faster. I have been analyzing weekly and posted some nice real time free ideas where we booked gains like +25% on AAPL, +13.6% on FSLR, +19% on BIDU and many more. However, due to recent increase of volatility and intraday move, a stable income generating strategy is not in place yet. I shall update here once we have something in place, I am continuing to experiment with real money. Click here to stay connected for real time alerts.

    So you don’t miss the power of weekly, let me give you an example– next week’s GOOG 490 Call, as of this writing when GOOG is at 482, is $4, so google needs to move $12 before these calls will be in the money. If you are a premium seller and look at Theta alone, that can bring about 10% of the cost of options/day, of course assuming GOOG remains below 490 by next Friday. While on the surface, it doesn’t seem like a big deal, but when you start to think of rolling weekly over to next which is hedged by leaps, the results can simply be amazing with potential to deliver over 15-20% /month. For the latest list of weeklies, pls click here.

    Watchout– The theta and gamma are something to watchout for. Pls ensure you understand greeks well before you plunged into the weeklies.

  • Ms Vega is Here to Stay

    Pls allow me introduce you to Ms Vega.

    Ms Vega is my personification for Implied Volatility.  As of this writing, there is almost 3% IV difference for SPY ATM options, VIX is at 24, VIX Oct futures are at 30, a 25% difference!! Though nothing is certain in the markets, this skew does indicate that market participants are “unusually uncertain”.

    Stock markets are an interesting place as Market participants tend to have a short memory. With a few percent market rally, bears turn into bull and vice versa and most often the reason is “when the facts change, I change too, what do you do sir”?

    A lot of technical chartists have turned bullish, Dow Theorist Mr Richard Russell has indicated that both Dow Industrial and Dow Transports have indicated bullish signal by closing above June high. Mr Russell also gave dire warnings and suggested members to tell friends that hard rain is coming, they sell everything and that by the end of this year they won’t recognize America as it appeared to him that it was one of the most predictable and dire market top. Don’t get me wrong, my intentions are not to disrespecting anyone here, but the point I am making is that Mr Market can humble anyone, anytime. Now just because Dow and Transports bettered June High, doesn’t mean we are in a primary Bull market, both of these needs to prove by crossing their April high first before anything meaningful can be concluded, else we are stuck in this sideways zone.

    One of my favorite thinker is John Hussman. He doesn’t like what he sees from the economic fundamental perspective. Once ISM Purchasing Manager’s index data drops below 54, it is highly likely that we are about to see double dip. Pls click here to read in details. Another thinker, Bond King, Bill Gross of PIMCO thinks that world is lacking in “aggregate demand” and has not yet adjusted to the new normal. His latest investment outlook discusses the impact that slowing world population will have in the “new normal” environment.

    PIMCO’s continuing New Normal thesis of deleveraging, reregulation and deglobalization produces structural headwinds that lead to lower economic growth as well as half-sized asset returns when compared to historical averages. The New Normal will not be aided nor abetted by a slower-growing population nor by cyclical policy errors that thrust Keynesian consumption remedies on a declining consumer base. Current deficit spending that seeks to maintain an artificially high percentage of consumer spending can be compared to flushing money down an economic toilet. Far better to create and mimic other government industrial policies aimed at infrastructure, clean energy, more relevant education and less costly healthcare services. Until we do, policymakers will continue to wave their hands in front of the electronic eye – waiting for the flush, waiting for the flush, waiting for the flush, with very little success. Try another way, Washington. El-Erian, Sachs and other 21st century policy thinkers have a better way to push the handle.

    Pls click here to read the full outlook.

    We are in a range 11,250 and 9,600. Unless any of those are gone, we are in a range. We may expect sudden burst of euphoria or panic sell-off but nothing is really being achieved. For option traders, this can be a good thing depending upon how one uses it and what sort of risk management strategy is used. There are lot of option trading strategies that can be used for sideways markets including the most widely followed Iron Condor strategy. Calendars can be tricky unless chose carefully. Though the strategies that worked in traditional markets may not work so well and returns may not be spectacular but I think Option Traders are still probably better placed to benefit from this sideways move.

    (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Until then, keep trading the options way and start to love as I call Mr. Theta and Ms Vega.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter Jul 2010 Up +8.3%

    We are on track for our 28th positive month of OPNewsletter phase-2, as of last Friday close OPNewsletter Jul 2010 portfolio is up +8.3% on the maximum investment of almost 60% of portfolio capital. We have started opening Aug 2010 portfolios and our first portfolio is already positive.

    Let’s talk consistency first, especially on trades like Iron condor which is probably the most widely used option trading strategy. OPNewsletter has lost only 1 month of RUT iron condor since May 2008, and the drawdown was only 7.15% while gains have been around 12% on average per month. RUT Iron Condor for July 2010 resulted into +23% gains. If someone has invested US$10K, only in OPN RUT Iron Condor, this 10K would have grown over 5 times to $56K since May 2008. This period includes probably one of the most volatile stock market moves of our lifetime. Of course, I don’t recommend traders to invest all the money in iron condors only and which is why we have portfolio approach at OPNewsletter, to diversify risk/rewards.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    During the month of July, we also opend, for first time, an Income portfolio on Google. Just for perspective, since our opening of this portfolio on June 14th, google moved from $480 to $506 and then from $506 to $434 almost without a pause. This portfolio has provided a great deal of learnings e.g. during this period, one of our backspread we opened for only $0.65 debit moved past to show $10 gains!!! Though it was tough and very volatile move, we still managed to gain 4% gains as of Friday close (still open) and we are in for the earning week and out theta gains are a few % points per day.

    Even though VIX and other implied volatility fell through the cliff in general, our Double calendar resulted into above +20% gains and Double Diagonal in positive (still open).

    These results do not include gains/losses on the speculative trades. It also feels good when I find adding value to subscribers as OPNewsletter members were already warned of the coming meltdown since mid April via constance market updates/projections. Though no one can be perfect or correct all the time, so far OPN has been able to serve well.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • How to Play Transocean (RIG) via OptionTrading

    How to play elevated Implied Volatility on Transocean (RIG), was a key question in lot of trader’s mind. In fact, it still is. This post is about one of the option + stock trading strategy that can be employed to play such scenarios assuming you are willing to hold the stock for long term.

    A little bit of background– On April 20 Deep Horizon Oil Rig exploded resulting into one of the largest environmental disaster on the face of earth. Since the initial estimates of 1,000 barrels per day leak has morphed into a monstrous 100,000 barrels/day. Since then BP’s market cap has been cut into half (over $90 Billions). OPNewsletter members profitably played a market neutral (but speculative) option trading strategy on BP and got out on May 5th, when BP was still a $50 stock.

    Together with BP, Transocean (RIG) also nose dived and we decided to play a bull call debit vertical spread as soon as BP’s TOP KILL started to function and it reported 70% success chance. It failed and so did our Transocean trade (we still have 24 days if that pleases the hearts). The RIG dipped all the way to $41.88, a five year low and by then IV jumped over 100%.

    So how to take advantage of this set-up?

    So the Trade set-up is-
    RIG, as I consider, is a quality stock and based on my understanding, it doesn’t have to pay any huge sums for the spill. The business will be affected due to ban but they will gain more later as this ban is going to create a supply/capacity crunch a little later on. It is at multiple year low and I am ok to take risk. So I assume to buy, for example, 200 stocks at $48.96

    The IV is unusually high, so I choose to write a call against my 100 stocks and write naked 1 put (to purchase another 100 stocks if I am assigned).

    • Purchased 100 stocks at 48.96
    • Sold Jul 50 Call @ $3.80
    • Sold Jul 50 Put @ 4.95

    If by July options expiration RIG stays above $50, I shall be making $979 excluding commissions. That’s about 10% returns for almost a month’s hold and assuming stock moves up only $1.04. I assume cost as =$48.96*200= $9,792; though less than 1/3rd will be used (thus about 30% profits) due to portfolio margining, but let’s assume this to be the case on a conservative side.

    Here are the transaction prices of a real trade-

    RIG Trade for OP ArticleThe break even point is $45.10-
    =[(48.96*100 (upfront stock purchase) +50*100 (if RIG is assigned for the puts sold))-(380 (call credit) +495(put credit))]/2 i.e. I shall be purchasing 200 shares at $45.10 as opposed to $48.96.

    RIG High IV Trade
    RIG High IV Trade

    The results will be somewhat similar to covered call option trading strategy except the fact that effective capital employed in the latter case is higher vs. option#1.

    So let’s recap, key criteria for this relatively simple strategy are-

    1. You have to have absolute conviction in the long term holding of stock. Remember what goes down can go down further.
    2. Implied volatility allows generating roughly 10% returns for 1 month holding period (assuming full 200 shares)
    3. Your trading account allows you to write calls and naked puts.
    4. The trading account is well capitalized
    5. A clear cut risk management plan should be in place before you trade this strategy. The returns are good on expiration but between opening of trade and expiration anything can go against the trade.

    Disclaimer- I have this trade in addition to multiple other trades on RIG but I may change my positions anytime. This trade is already making money and I have replaced stocks by options before close yesterday so as to reduce my delta. I may get in with the stocks again. The intention here is to share an example for educational purpose.

  • Markets at Crossroads

    We are in for one of the very interesting times when dealing with stock markets. Yesterday broader markets closed above widely watched 200days moving averages. It was also a 90% volume up day but more importantly the volume was below average. So  is it a “trap” to convince everyone that a bottom has been formed? we’ll find out later.  For almost 2 months I have been mentioning 3 points to watch especially on Dow and those are 10.7K, 10.3K and Feb’10 Low and it doesn’t really matter what either permabulls say or permabears says, nothing major is going to be achieved unless either extreme is going to be penetrated. Oh well, if you would like to read more about permabears, here is an interesting read.

    What do I think? Don’t waste time in readings tons of media. Let Mr Market do the talking.

    Here are the scenarios-

    • We need to watch if markets pull back today, is it on heavy volume or thin. If it is later, chances are that it is going to move up.
    • If Market moves above then 10.7K will come into play and we need to watch if it is moving beyond that level or not. If not, then probably stage is being set for a giant Head & Shoulder pattern.

    So, no hard rain is coming until unless Feb lows are broken. We’ll take it as it comes. My bottomline, I am still trading options for both personal and OPN accounts but I am not buying any equity as of now.

    Here is latest testimonial from one of the current OPNsubscriber. Pls click here to read more testimonials-

    I’ve been OPNewsletter for a few months and my experience so far has been extremely positive. It’s an excellent tool to learn as well as to earn income utilizing conservative income strategies such as calendars, diagonals, and condor spreads not to mention frequent speculative trades that are not part of the official trades. Every trade is planned in such a fashion that all the entry/exit points and profit/loss targets are predefined with close attention to support/resistance lines, options greeks and the overall fundamental and technical pictures. All the positions are closely monitored and timely adjustments are made upon necessary. My understanding is that OPN reports returns based on the margins employed and I think it’s totally fair. Although I admit I need to do a better job using the monthly tracking sheet. OPN promises to deliver 5-7% each month excluding commissions and it usually delivers far more than that in my opinion. I’ve shared my OPN newsletter experience with a couple of close friends and I will recommend it to people who, I think, are well suited for. OPN offers an excellent value to those who are willing to put enough time, effort, discipline, interest and dedication necessary to become a winning trader.

    Dan Danshi
    Seattle, Washington, USA

    Thank you Dan. I appreciate your kind words.

    Pls click here to read more customer testimonials. If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Profitable trading, OPКартини