Tag: PCLN

  • Another Way to Play Priceline (PCLN) Earnings

    Priceline (PCLN) is set to report it’s earning after market close today. According to briefing.com, consensus is $9.29 for EPA while revenue consensus is $1.416 billion. During the past 8 quarters PCLN has consistent outperformed the expectations, usually by a wide margin.

    Based on current Implied Volatility, it is expected to move roughly $36-$38 in either direction. If you look at the IV profile, there is a huge SKEW between Nov weekly and Nov, and then in Dec and Jan series as well. Going into earings, IV is highly elevated as well.

    It’s no secret that IV will crash after the earnings. Generally by 40-45 points in the front and roughly 10-15% in the 2nd back months (in this case Dec).  By the way, if this happened in the past, that doesn’t mean it will happen again in the future as well….it’s just that, based on past experience, IV crash, in this pattern, is likely to happen.

    So how could one possibly play PCLN earnings?

    If you are willing to take directional risk, then 440/450/460 Put butterfly for roughly $0.40 debit (mid quoted as of this writing) could be an speculative play assuming you are bearish like me. The watch out here is-> if PCLN moves positively, then this fly is a toast. You will lose all the capital invested. You might choose similar type butterfly say 550/560/570 call butterfly as well (for a what if on the upside). The watch out with such a strategy is that you will lose capital on both sides if PCLN doesn’t move as much.

    There is another popular alternatives as well e.g. Selling an ATM money straddle which will cost roughly $14K (you may reduce that cost by buying wings, essentially converting into a fly) but again you may have to weight the pros and cons of an strategy vs it’s potential rewards.

    While there are a lot of choices to play e.g. Calendars, back spreads. ratio spreads and so on, I prefer to play via a  Dec 2011 Iron Condor. Specifically, the Trade structure is like this-

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  • How Implied Volatility Can Make Money, A Lot of It

    The most powerful force is an “invisible” one; because you can always prepare for the visible forces but the one that can cause most gain or pain is the one that you can’t see. Implied volatility is one such force when trading financial markets. I introduced Ms Vega as personification for Implied Volatility. Depending upon which side are you at, Ms Vega can either bring lot of money to your portfolio or can easily make you cry. Those who don’t know about implied volatility, pls click here to know more about it.

    It is a commonly known fact amongst options traders that before earnings announcement, implied volatility of underlying increases. Let’s stay with the simple facts-

    1. Implied Volatility rises before earning.
    2. For the stocks that tends to move a lot (how to play) usually there is Implied Volatility skew between the earning month and the month before/after.

    Insiders/Outsiders who might have “earnings date” can make a lot of money. All one need to know a) the earning date with certainty and/or b) changes in the earnings date before those are announced to the public and bingo!!! Let me explain this more with the following two examples-
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  • Priceline- How Did We Make Triple Digit Gains

    Backspread Option Trading Strategy is one of my favorite strategies when it comes to playing large move and when I am not so sure of the direction. I like to play it especially when I am biased about the direction but I don’t want to take unnecessary risk.

    I first introduced this spread to OP readers almost 3.5 years back and since then we have done a lot of trades using backspreads. Recent one is how we played Priceline (PCLN) earnings and netted with Several hundred % gains within a day. Here is what I wrote to OPNewsletter members before opening this speculative trade-

    I have purchased a PCLN Aug 240/250 Backspread for $1.68 average (Sell 1x Aug 240 and Buy Aug 2x 250), assume this will be 100% before you invest anything.

    The maximum loss (roughly $1,125) will be if a) PCLN is at 250 and b) Nothing is done to the trade till expiration. If you would like to know more about backspread, here is the link -> https://www.optionpundit.net/options-essentials/backspread-startegy-for-large-moves

    I expect PCLN to move ~10%, and I am directionally biased but I want to minimize my risk and hence playing it via backspread.

    The results – PCLN gapped up almost $42!! and continued to move-up throughout the day; the mid quoted price for our $1.68 Backspread was $20.3!! Some members were quick to book profit (which is a good thing to do) and closed it for $16, netting +814% gains on debit or 121% including margins. I sold it for $18.1 as I want to max out profits so closed it leg by leg, but then PCLN just kept on rising all the way to $286!! (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Another member played this earnings via Call Debit vertical spread and netted out with +450%. Below is a screen shot of my trades. As you will notice I purchased puts also assuming that PCLN might pullback after rising $50 in a day.

    Fantastic returns by any means. But OPNewsletter members include some very experienced traders who would like to know why we chose this strategy (and had to keep $1,000) margins, thus reducing our gains as opposed to verticals. Here is an exchange of words between two OPN Members (I took the liberty to cut & paste it from paid forum) that provides a lot of insights which you may not find elsewhere –

    I was running a bit too fast, sold for $16. Well, “only” 814% gain on debit or 121% on margin. Thanks OP!!!!!!!!

    OP, I was curious why you preferred the backspread. I understand that the main advantage of the backspread is that you can do it for even money or even credit, so even if you are wrong, you still can exit for breakeven or even small profit. However, in this case, we paid debit, so if PCLN tanked, we would probably lose most of the debit paid. Why is better than say simple bull spread?

    In the true spirit of learning while making money, I challenged my friend to think about it again and share what he find. Here are his thoughts-

    Well, as you wrote in your original post, backspread has the potential to make money in either direction, as you do it for credit. So even if you are wrong, you can still make money.

    But this is not true in our case since we did it for debit. Comparing profits with say 260/280 bull spread that Chak did for slightly higher debit (but no margin requirements), the backspread returned about 800-900% on debit and about 130% on margin, and bull spread returned about 500%. So return on debit was definitely better for backspread. If PCLN went down, both would probably lose most of the debit. I’m not sure what would happen if PCLN went to 250-260 as you expected.

    But again, the main point is that in our case backspread lost its main advantage because it was done for debit and not credit.

    And there here is the answer from another member who made 450% using verticals. Review for insights and the detailed work he has done before placing the trade. A good example of due diligence.

    Allow me to add to this why I did a debit call vertical. I was expecting about a 12% drop in volatility after earnings and only expected a 10% movement, as did OP. If this is your expectations, it paints a different picture. Both trades would have been up about $300 if we went up 10% to $253 (from $230). Based on debit, the backratio would have had a slightly larger percentage gain. Also, our breakevens for today would have been both around PCLN = $242. (Actually, the backratio would have been around $243, the vertical about $241.) But, due to the IV drop, the backratio would have lost money a lot quicker below the $240 level. If we didn’t move at all, the backratio would have incurred a full loss of the debit (-100% of debit), but the vertical would have only lost about 60%. A max loss of the debit would have been down around PCLN=210 for the vertical and 235 (above the closing price!) for the backratio.

    So, taking the -12% drop in IV and 10% expected move, I believed the vertical’s risk/reward was more attractive. Both were expected to make ~$300 if correct, but if wrong, the backratio incurred a max loss over much more of the PCLN range.

    That said, in the rare case that your 10% expected move turns into a 20% move, the backratio will do considerably better if you got the direction correct.

    So as you can see, there was a good reason for doing vertical debit spread and it paid out nicely for the money invested. This is really the true spirit of improving as a trader where you could look at each past trade and think what could have been better, is there something that can be learned.  Here is further discussion between the two members-

    Well, on hindsight, you could just go with 260 calls for similar debit (about 2.50) and have 900% return. 270 calls would risk only 1.30 and give you 1,300% return. Of course hindsight is always 20/20, but most of those trades would risk only relatively small amount for potential of making few hundred percent.

    Thoughts from 2nd member to this-

    I believe the analysis was done based on a 10% move (see OP’s original post). The $2.50 260 call would have been worth about $400 assuming a move to 253. Still a good trade, and quite possibly better than the other 2 trades.

    As a true option trader, the learning never stops. As someone said, If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. We made real gains on this trade, but the discussion didn’t stop there.  I am proud of OPN community as it challenges the thoughts and through those conversations, we discover many more opportunities. Both the members gave me some ideas to think about when placing the trades in future. (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Here are my thoughts on why I chose backspread-

    I expected a +10% move, but the key difference was that I also wanted to have room for upside what if I am correct and what if there is a huge short squeeze shortly after the positive announcement. A good Backspread would be making money even if the underlying moves against. But here in this trade, as I originally mentioned I was directionally bias but wanted to reduce my exposure while maximize gains if I am correct. What essentially this Backspread did was to purchase a 250 call but financed most of the cost via selling a 240/250 bear call spread. Additionally, PCLN’s intraday moves are also fairly large from a absolute $ perspective and we still had 15 days time left to salvage the trade if needed.

    Bottomline– Verticals, straight calls or backspread are all different strategies suited for different option traders. All have a role to play as long as are clear on objective of each one.

    Porfitable Trading and Learning

    OP @InvesCafe

  • Make or Break?

    Up, Up and then Doooown. That’s the simplest way I could define the stock market’s pattern these days. Should the markets attempt another move higher, which could be sparked by today’s release of the Nov. unemployment report, initial resistance should be at the Nov. 28 reaction high at 8831 for the DJIA, 896 for the S&P 500 and 1535 for the NASDAQ. Still, the strength needs to be demonstrated by strong volumes.

    I have been cautioning OPN subscribers time and again..here is what I wrote y’day…

    Doubts abound in these “last few hrs rallies”. Barron’s confidence index continues to fall amidst these rallies jobless claims, I have my doubts on govt statistics… market breadth isn’t significantly positive when compared with obvious rallies…is this advance that started from Nov 20 coming to an end soon? more and more questions than I can find answers…still on sidelines..”

    Y’day, The Dow gave up over 300 pts in last hour before recovering alomost 100points in last 6mins. The slide primarily was due to, I think, traders wanting to move to the sidelines ahead of today’s employment report. Treasuries are yielding multi-decade low (currently -0.106 at 2.570%), representing a continued move into safe haven assets. This is also reflected in “Barrons Confidence Index”.

    The biggie today is the job’s report. Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to drop ~330K. Markets have been handling negative economy data quite well for the past few days. We have seen selling pick up ahead of economic releases over the past few days (ahead of the Beige Book, ahead of initial claims data), which often results in a positive reaction to poor economic data. The number will have to be worse then expected with severe downside revisions to previous months to trigger a sharply negative reaction in stocks. A surprise smaller than expected decline in payrolls could spark rally. It is anyone’s guess as to how the data will turn out and how the market will react to it, but with a late day deterioration ahead of the data, the market might have already priced in some bad news.

    In the unusal options trading section, HANS Dec calls saw interest probably due to renewed KO-for-HANS takeover speculation. SBUX Dec 10 calls saw heavy interest around midday. PCLN Jan’09 70 calls also saw heavy activity where 12.8K contracts exchnaged hands vs. 1.1K open interest. Other notable call was CAT Jan’09 45 calls 11K volume vs 3.8K open interest.

    These days markets needs to watched almost daily. It seems as if every other day is a record day. While thinking about market actions, here is an interesting chart worth pondering to review rate of returns for common stocks purchased by the Treasury from financial institutions.

    Trade Carefully, Profitable Trading, OP