OptionPundit

Category: Income from FutureOptions

  • 30 Year Bonds, Which Way Forward?

    Scottish Poll Results #ScotlandDecides will be available tomorrow. The GBP condor trade idea can now be closed for +50% collection of profit in just two day. If you followed it, please close the trade and book your profits.

    Now over to the the 30 Year bonds.

    The 30 Years Bonds futures are trading at 136.06 (as of this writing), testing an important support level at 135 which has been very well respected as both support and resistance multiple times since 2010 very obvious if you look at the attached weekly chart.

    Bonds, Which way Forward?

    Right now, I am bearish bonds. There are 2 reasons for my bias:

    1. One, recent weeks’ price action has been very weak
    2. Two, I am not seeing strong commitment from bulls even though price is testing a strong level.

    Should price close below 135 at the end of the week, I would look for a setup to go short and update to IFO subscribers. NO action, unless price confirms.

    If you are not an IFO member and would like to join our Income via Future Options Newsletter, pls sign-up here.

    Regards
    Ethan

  • How To Trade Wheat Futures Going Forward?

    Wheat futures are trying to recover from its 3 month fall. For the past 2-3 weeks, the buyers have defended the 520 level valiantly and 520 has become the low of Wheat’s 3 month fall. Buyers have also succeeded in pushing prices higher. (wheat now at 557, up 30+ points from 520)

    Despite the recent success of the bulls / buyers, the overall trend is still down and the next resistance lies close by at 580. If you refer to the attached weekly chart, you will see a red horizontal line that marks where 580 is. You will also notice that the 580 level has acted as both support and resistance multiple times, going all the way back to 2009.

    (We just opened -up few spots for our INCOME THROUGH FUTURE OPTIONS newsletter. If you would like to take advantage of it, here is your chance for the RISK FREE Trial for 14 days)

    Until 580 (and 600, the next significant resistance level) are taken out, the medium term trend remains down.

    Happy Trading,

    Ethan

  • How To Trade Gold Now?

    After failing to breach a critical level of 1350, Gold has been falling steadily since 14th July and has fallen to its current level at 1284.80. Since Gold has fallen so much, is it time to go short? Let’s analyse the daily chart.

    Firstly, in the medium term (3 to 6 month period), gold is moving more sideways than trending downwards. This means there are no strong and obvious directional bias yet.

    Secondly, there are 2 important support levels, 1280 and 1260 just under current price level. (please see attached daily chart) These 2 levels have acted as bother support and resistance and go all the way back to Jul last year. Since gold is in a sideways mode, it is harder to tell if sellers will gather enough strength to break support. (I doubt bears will break support right away)

    So what’s the trading plan then? For directional traders, it would be more prudent to observe how Gold behaves at support before jumping in. If support is really taken out, then we can start looking for shorting opportunities.

    Regards
    Ethan

  • Crude Oil Testing Resistance

    Crude Oil Crude oil futures are finding sellers at a significant resistance level  at 105, a level that has been acting as resistance since September last year. Such levels are key defining point i.e. it can break-out or turn down from this. Confirmation is the key.

    Right now, a pin bar is taking shape but we have to wait till end of day to see if the candle stays that way or not.

    If crude oil really fails at 105, I don’t believe we will see a large drop as the next level of support is likely found at 102, a mere 3 points away. Furthermore, crude oil has been making higher lows consistently since the start of the year, which suggests an general bullishness.

    As a nimble trader I might look for capturing the swift move (if it happens) from 104ish to 102. However from a long term perspective, there is still time for a major set-up to mature in either direction.

    Happy Trading,
    Ethan

  • More Downside for The Canadian Dollar?

    The September Canadian futures are in a down trend both on the weekly and daily charts. Recently the Canadian dollar has fallen dramatically and is now consolidating in the vicinity of 0.95. If you refer to the attached weekly chart, you will notice that this level was previously acting as support back in Nov 2012, Oct 2012 as well as Aug 2010. This is a significant support level and if this level is breached, there is potentially significant downside.

    The daily candlesticks have been exhibiting indecision at this level and so far, the price action points to more downside than upside pressure.

    Aggressive bearish traders will be looking to sell calls or establish put debit spreads now while more conservative bearish traders may want to see a break in the support before acting.

  • Just Two Trades Paid for 12 Month’s cost

    While on one hand, equity markets are moving pretty much sideways thus benefitting OP Income Newseletter, Futures and commodity options are offering unparralled opportunities too. Just look at recent moves in grains and metal markets. Gold is still recovering from the massive move it experienced during last few weeks. Crude oil is another example. Currencies expecially JPY, GBP, Euro are pvoviding some good opportnities too. An option trader today has mulitple options to choose from to add to his strategic portfolio of trading styles and instruments.

    OP Income Newsletter (OPN) is continuing to track towards my goal of 2x the SPX retrun in 2013. Another premium service that we started last year, Income Through Future Options (IFO), is doing equally well.

    OP Income Newsletter (OPN) is focused on equity and indices options’ trading via NON-DIRECTIONAL strategies that benefits from rise and fall of IMPLIED VOLATILITY. It has been consistently delievering superior performance for the mast 65 months and has tested a raging bull (2006-2007), fearsome bear (2008-2009) and again another bull market (2009-2013). OPN is probably one of the very few options trading newsletter that has such a long history. It is an honour and pleasure to see a lot of traders modeling their trading strategies based on what they learnt at OptionPundit. Strategies and approach that are used can be scaled-up and are diversifiesd enough to cater to that month’s need. Here are results of the past six months-> Oct’12 +11.9%, Nov’12 +10.4%, Dec’12 +23.9%, Jan’13 +15.4%, Feb’13 +2.3%, Mar’13 +15.3% and we are doing equally well for the current month.

    It has a NO PROFIT, NO FEE promise i.e. if OPN information doesn’t make money in your first month, you will get a full refund. Learn more about OPN.

    Unlike OPN, Income Through Future Options (IFO) is a DIRECTIONAL information service. It WAITs for the price set-ups to mature and as soon as entry points are triggered a trade idea is shared. The key here is WAIT and Set-up completion. A lot of time, traders can’t wait. If you are one of those traders who need to trade everyday regardless of low winning probability or if you like to anticipate the set-ups and start trading even before it is matured, then IFO is not for you. But if you are one of those, who like to let price action to take lead and who would prefer high porbability set-ups, then IFO can deliver great results. For example, recently, just two trades, first a gold bearish and then a bullish gold trade paid for almost entire years’ worth of subscription fee. That assumes only 1 spread per trade!!! Excellent results from Crude oil, euro will then just be bonus. The exact trades, with exact entry/exit can be found here. You can try it for FREE for 14 days and thereafter it is ONLY US$ 97 per month. (Prices are revised upwards from $49 to $97 per month from July 22, 2013)

    This year is not the year to wait on the sidelines. Take advantage from the exceptional moves that we might observe this year.

    Trade carefully, Trade Profitably,

    OP