OptionPundit

Tag: ibm

  • OPNewsletter (Jul’09) +5.2% (Open)

    General Market Move Since opening of OPNewsletter Jul'09 portfolio
    General Market Move Since opening of OPNewsletter Jul'09 portfolio

    4th down week for the markets. It’s interesting to evaluate how underlyings have moved since we started our portfolios. X moved +1% to -23% and moved wildly. GDX moved from +3% to -11%, and all major market indices including S&P 500, DOW and Russell 2000 ended down, ranging from -5.5% to -6.5% (Ref point June 16th). On contrary, OPNewsletter, using 43.3% of capital is up +5.2% x-commissions.

    If you recall mid-June when we started our portfolios, the “green shoots” theory was gaining momentum (maybe still it is, but less so) and markets were making high. These pages on OptionPundit reflect my bearish bias. The problem with bear market is that you may know it is about to happen, but not sure of time. Hence we have to keep OPN portfolio to cater to upside moves as well. The strategy paid off.

    The above results don’t include returns on speculative trades of either VIX or RIMM, POT or Indonesia related Trades.

    I have been saying for sometime now Smiley I shall say it again-
    As I shared earlier, market internals are deteriorating day by day. I don’t know when will the tide turn upside down “big time”..I feel that March lows are about to be tested..if not all, then maybe a significant gains will since then might be reversed. If you have a long stock portfolio, you may want to erect defense lines while the IVs are lower and defense will be cheaper. For stocks, there is no harm in reducing the gains in order to protect and preserve capital. I’ll reinforce what I often say- Making money is not difficult, preserving it is.

    We shall soon be starting Aug portfolio. If you would like to join, pls click here.

    oNext week is an interesting one, as it has GOOG, IBM, HOG and some other great earnings’ play; option expiration is on Friday which sets it up for a highly leveraged opportunistic time. I may share some trade ideas via e-mail alerts to registered members. If you have not signed-up for free membership, you may want to join now.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter – May’09 (+9.48%), Jun’09 (Open)

    OPNewsletter closed May’09 for +9.48% x-commissions and +6.76% inclusive of commissions. As I stated earlier, after many months of waiting, we crossed our 60% portfolio investment target. It’s always an advantage if the capital was preserved. Yes we did have a few months of low returns, but that preserved capital is an out performance (vs general markets) already and now we can start using this preserved capital for further gains vs. wasting energy in recouping the losses. Just 1 single covered call (X) was more than enough to cover OPN fee  (and triggered no adjustment needs).

    Sign-up for the OPNWaitlist here.

    Maximum investment incurred was +64.4% (reached on April 23) and since then we continued to use that as basis for returns calculation even though we were generating credit since then for the next two weeks. Here is the tally-

    • IWM, USO and UPS were almost breakeven
    • USO was closed for +0.8% (after Mar @ >+22% and Apr@>+13%)
    • GDX closed for +18.38% in May
    • X closed for 23.29% gains
    • HAL was closed for +22.69%
    • AMZN was closed for +15.83% and
    • IBM was closed for +23.01%

    This doesn’t include bonus speculative trade on Visa earnings (V) that was closed for +35%, CSX , GS, GOOG and others some of which didn’t make much money or closed for breakeven. We have already opened our June’09 income portfolios and invested almost 35-38% of capital. After a few months gap, we opened a 160 points wide RUT Iron condor for $2.20 credit which is already making money in two days.

    If you would like to join OPNewsletter, pls sign-up for the waitlist here.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter (Outperformance)- May’09 +6.1%

    Option Trading is equally useful to retail traders and can generate consistent income if used properly. Hope you enjoyed the free trade alerts for some earnings play (You may sign-up for the Basic membership that is free till Dec 2009)

    A Fantastic week for OPNewsletter! We played HAL, IBM, UPS and AMZN for earnings and all these one day players nicely added value to the portfolio. We chose to close HAL and AMZN and to keep IBM and UPS for further gains. These were special circumstantial opportunities and we took full advantage without having to worry which direction stocks will move post earnings.

    After many months of waiting, we crossed our 60% portfolio investment guideline. Maximum investment incurred was +64.4% and we shall continue to use that as basis for returns calculation even though we are now in credit generation phase. We have 42.5% in cash (assuming 10 k portfolio). The capital preservation strategy worked nicely. We moved out of markets in early when OPN subscribers were clearly warned of the upcoming market meltdown when I shared the need to stay away should Dow slips below 10,697. That was on Sept 15th, well in advance before the real disaster struck. As I always say, if you know how to preserve trading capital, you can always make it back to market. At OPNewsletter, Capital preservation is always a higher priority than missing a potential investment opportunity.

    Net, overall OPNewsletter is up +8.62% (x- brokerage commissions) and +6.13% (including commissions). We are nicely positioned to reap further gains and we still have 3 weeks to go for May expiration. I don’t have to worry so much about the market fall as that will further benefit our portfolios.

    • USO is down -1.34%
    • UPS is up +3.67%
    • IWM is up +6.08%
    • GDX is up +8.46%
    • X is up +13.01%
    • IBM is up +19.88%
    • HAL was closed for +22.69% and
    • AMZN was closed for +15.83%

    (If you would like to join for “No Profit, No Fee” OPNewsletter, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist)

    We have reached our investment capital deployment goal for the month and I am not planning to add any more investment capital unless there are opportunity that I don’t want to miss at all. I am not expecting any major adjustments except in IWM if markets make strong move up. The probability favors downside.

    Looking forward to 16th positive month for OPNewsletter.

    Profitable Trading, OP