OptionPundit

Tag: GDX

  • OPNewsletter – May’09 (+9.48%), Jun’09 (Open)

    OPNewsletter closed May’09 for +9.48% x-commissions and +6.76% inclusive of commissions. As I stated earlier, after many months of waiting, we crossed our 60% portfolio investment target. It’s always an advantage if the capital was preserved. Yes we did have a few months of low returns, but that preserved capital is an out performance (vs general markets) already and now we can start using this preserved capital for further gains vs. wasting energy in recouping the losses. Just 1 single covered call (X) was more than enough to cover OPN fee  (and triggered no adjustment needs).

    Sign-up for the OPNWaitlist here.

    Maximum investment incurred was +64.4% (reached on April 23) and since then we continued to use that as basis for returns calculation even though we were generating credit since then for the next two weeks. Here is the tally-

    • IWM, USO and UPS were almost breakeven
    • USO was closed for +0.8% (after Mar @ >+22% and Apr@>+13%)
    • GDX closed for +18.38% in May
    • X closed for 23.29% gains
    • HAL was closed for +22.69%
    • AMZN was closed for +15.83% and
    • IBM was closed for +23.01%

    This doesn’t include bonus speculative trade on Visa earnings (V) that was closed for +35%, CSX , GS, GOOG and others some of which didn’t make much money or closed for breakeven. We have already opened our June’09 income portfolios and invested almost 35-38% of capital. After a few months gap, we opened a 160 points wide RUT Iron condor for $2.20 credit which is already making money in two days.

    If you would like to join OPNewsletter, pls sign-up for the waitlist here.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter (Outperformance)- May’09 +6.1%

    Option Trading is equally useful to retail traders and can generate consistent income if used properly. Hope you enjoyed the free trade alerts for some earnings play (You may sign-up for the Basic membership that is free till Dec 2009)

    A Fantastic week for OPNewsletter! We played HAL, IBM, UPS and AMZN for earnings and all these one day players nicely added value to the portfolio. We chose to close HAL and AMZN and to keep IBM and UPS for further gains. These were special circumstantial opportunities and we took full advantage without having to worry which direction stocks will move post earnings.

    After many months of waiting, we crossed our 60% portfolio investment guideline. Maximum investment incurred was +64.4% and we shall continue to use that as basis for returns calculation even though we are now in credit generation phase. We have 42.5% in cash (assuming 10 k portfolio). The capital preservation strategy worked nicely. We moved out of markets in early when OPN subscribers were clearly warned of the upcoming market meltdown when I shared the need to stay away should Dow slips below 10,697. That was on Sept 15th, well in advance before the real disaster struck. As I always say, if you know how to preserve trading capital, you can always make it back to market. At OPNewsletter, Capital preservation is always a higher priority than missing a potential investment opportunity.

    Net, overall OPNewsletter is up +8.62% (x- brokerage commissions) and +6.13% (including commissions). We are nicely positioned to reap further gains and we still have 3 weeks to go for May expiration. I don’t have to worry so much about the market fall as that will further benefit our portfolios.

    • USO is down -1.34%
    • UPS is up +3.67%
    • IWM is up +6.08%
    • GDX is up +8.46%
    • X is up +13.01%
    • IBM is up +19.88%
    • HAL was closed for +22.69% and
    • AMZN was closed for +15.83%

    (If you would like to join for “No Profit, No Fee” OPNewsletter, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist)

    We have reached our investment capital deployment goal for the month and I am not planning to add any more investment capital unless there are opportunity that I don’t want to miss at all. I am not expecting any major adjustments except in IWM if markets make strong move up. The probability favors downside.

    Looking forward to 16th positive month for OPNewsletter.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • Gold, Oversold

    Gold is oversold, that’s the theme of this post. Through yesterday, gold has been down and down, almost everyday since hitting high in Mid July’08.

     Attached chart has a simple technical analysis and both RSI and MACD are in the oversold area. Each time we saw this low, Gold rallied approximately $70-$75 in following weeks. $800 is another strong fib support area. But before you jump into a straight trade, pls do your due diligence. Gold can be very volatile and is open to currency fluctuations as well as uncertain market climate.

    Gold has been on a downward move ever since Fed decided to leave rates unchanged and so did the ECB. Dollar strengthened vs Euro resulting in a sell-off in metal and commodities. But I think the recent sell-off is overdone. It temporarily broke 800 support yesterday, probably to wash-in-rinse the weak traders. Only coming days will be able to demonstrate if this was true.

    There are couple of ways you may choose from, to participate for a bullish case. GLD,(a gold ETF), GDX (gold stock ETF), XAU (Gold/Silver index), HUI (Gold Index) or via gold futures. If you are an OPN subscriber, pls visit the thread for speculative bonus alerts on how do I want to play this move.