OptionPundit

Tag: ESI

  • Outperformance Continues at OPNewsletter

    When compared with broader markets, Feb was an excellent month for OPNewsletter coupled with a few good learnings (kinda reinforcement, been there done that, but forget that). Overall, OPNewsletter for Feb closed up +5.6% x-commissions and +2.6% including commissions. Capital preservtion and thus allocation was higher priority vs missing an opportunity.

    These results doesn’t include the speculative directional trade which were shared here (only OPN subscribers can see this thread) and here at my profile on InvesCafe (Free) which includes likes of RIMM +40%, V +7.8%, BIDU +5.2%, BAC +10% to +40%, ESI + 33%, SRS, STT, WHR, BTU, AXP, CAT, ISRG, BLK and many more. I opened multiple positions where some won some lost (due to inability to fill on time as I was away and didn’t want to autotrade). Hardly any of those missed the expectations except the VXX which I intentionally closed.

    Above all, this doesn’t include future opportunities via capital preservation due to early warnings. Hope you have been reading OptionPundit and thus were aware of the Bear Market Signal that was reconfirmed recently. And of course, at least one assett class probably would have been shining in your diversified portfolio.

    I have already started investing for March’09 portfolios. if you would to sign-up, pls click here.

    Cheers and profitable trading, OP

  • Outperformance : OPNewsletter Feb’09 +5.85%(Open)

    An excellent month for OPNewsletter so far. Overall, OPNewsletter is up +8.87% x-commissions and +5.85% including commissions. We didn’t have to make any major adjustments to our portfolios except one which rolled partially to next month. We closed one portfolio for +17.17% gains and except any major disastrous events on Tuesday market open, remainder portfolios stands to gain good theta decay over the long weekend. This is what OPN wants, portfolios to be as boring as possible. We didn’t get fills on two income portfolios else results would have been even stronger.

    These results doesn’t include the speculative directional trade which were shared here (only OPN subscribers can see this thread) and here at my profile on InvesCafe (Free) which includes likes of RIMM +40%, V +7.8%, BIDU +5.2%, BAC +10% to +40%, ESI + 33%, SRS, STT, WHR, BTU, AXP, CAT, ISRG, BLK and many more. I opened multiple positions where some won some lost (due to inability to fill ontime as I was away and didn’t want to autotrade). Hardly any of those missed the expectations except the VXX which I intentionally closed.

    Other highlights includes my warning on Friday when markets were going higher in anticipation of stimulus package which proved right. Not that I have crystal ball, but it’s an experience I have been observing in the events of past few years.

    Overall an excellent month except that we didn’t invest a lot of capital for income spreads (only a max of 26.5%), but as I mentioned earlier, capital preservation is higher importance than missing a potential opportunity, especially in markets like current ones. We may always make more money if we have trading capital preserved. Once trading capital is lost, we can’t benefit from any opportunity even if it is as sure as that sunrise.

    I shall be looking for March’09 portfolios. if you would to sign-up, pls click here.

    Cheers and profitable trading, OP

  • Recession, Sorry What?

    These are good times at Apollo Group (APOL), ITT Educational Services (ESI) and Strayer Education (STRA). ESI recently announced stellar results beating analysts’ estimates very easily. They raised guidance and feel pretty positive about 2009. Here is a snapshot of what CFO has to say about this.

    “The financial condition and fundamentals of the company are incredibly strong, and we entered the new year with a great deal of optimism for a very favorable operating environment in 2009,” said Chief Financial Officer Daniel M. Fitzpatrick. “We believe that we are well positioned to execute on our established growth plan with the goal of increasing shareholder value over the long-term.”

    APOL‘s share have been on a roll. For those who are not familiar with APOL, here is the description from Google Finance-

    Apollo Group, Inc. (Apollo Group)is a private education provider. The Company offers educational programs and services at the high school, undergraduate and graduate levels online and on-campus through its wholly owned subsidiaries, The University of Phoenix, Inc. (University of Phoenix), Institute for Professional Development (IPD), The College for Financial Planning Institutes Corporation (CFP), Western International University, Inc. (Western International University), and Insight Schools, Inc. (Insight Schools), and through its 80.1% owned subsidiary, Apollo Global, Inc. (Apollo Global). The Company has also established a Canadian institution, Meritus University (Meritus), which began operations in September 2008

    APOL, of course make a good case for speculative option trading strategies or the ones designed for large moves. Check out the gapping occasions during last 4 earning announcement and it seems to me that most of the gains occurs during the time and for the remaining time, it doesn’t move that much.

    So what to make out of it. Well the shares are surely doing good and the business is rocking. But do keep in mind, APOL is selling (P/E) to the north of 20s in an environment when broader market is expected to be a good value in single digit PE. Is it the investAor’s enthusiasm to find something that’s doing good in current environment as he/she can’t find better alternatives or is it really a growth stock to be owned. Only time is going to tell us, in the meanwhile, if you are investing into APOL, take a cautious approach and you my want to hedge any potential downside.

    Best case, every thing you get everything you dreamt of when started to buy these stocks and whatever the experience analysts are saying.  But I wonder, if it is all so good, why then there has been $90 millions selling in past 4wks. The worse case scenario will be, the broader market strengthens and recession proof stock turns into laggard in the new economy as the funds starts to flow to the new leaders.

    Profitable Trading, OP