OptionPundit

Tag: BTU

  • Outperformance Continues at OPNewsletter

    When compared with broader markets, Feb was an excellent month for OPNewsletter coupled with a few good learnings (kinda reinforcement, been there done that, but forget that). Overall, OPNewsletter for Feb closed up +5.6% x-commissions and +2.6% including commissions. Capital preservtion and thus allocation was higher priority vs missing an opportunity.

    These results doesn’t include the speculative directional trade which were shared here (only OPN subscribers can see this thread) and here at my profile on InvesCafe (Free) which includes likes of RIMM +40%, V +7.8%, BIDU +5.2%, BAC +10% to +40%, ESI + 33%, SRS, STT, WHR, BTU, AXP, CAT, ISRG, BLK and many more. I opened multiple positions where some won some lost (due to inability to fill on time as I was away and didn’t want to autotrade). Hardly any of those missed the expectations except the VXX which I intentionally closed.

    Above all, this doesn’t include future opportunities via capital preservation due to early warnings. Hope you have been reading OptionPundit and thus were aware of the Bear Market Signal that was reconfirmed recently. And of course, at least one assett class probably would have been shining in your diversified portfolio.

    I have already started investing for March’09 portfolios. if you would to sign-up, pls click here.

    Cheers and profitable trading, OP

  • Futures are Pointing Higer Opening

    There are a lot of positive news in the market, for a change. Some of the companies have announced good results. FDIC starting a “bad bank” concept and FOMC meeting announcement at 2:15pm. There is nothing much fed is left with from the interest rates perspective, but Uncle Ben may have some more tricks.

    Y’day volume was thin, and internals were ok. I would consider action so far as bouncing from the oversold region. But I am ready for any “new development” as well. The markets need to clear upper edge of the minor resistance which appears to have formed over the last few days. For the DJIA, the upper edge of the resistance is near 8250, while the equivalent level is near 855 for the S&P 500 and 1515 for the NASDAQ. A move above these levels may be viewed as a breakout but volume is the key. So watch out for the volumes together with any move to avoid any bull traps.

    So far we have hatrick on earnings (2 shared as bonus trades in speculative section, 1 shared as Income portfolio) for OPNewsletter (AXP, BTU and GD). So far so good, we have invested nearly 20% of capital and have cash available for more opportunities.

    Trade carefully and as much possible, delay decision of going long at least by one day.

    Cheers and profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter : Oct’08 (+9%)

    What a tubulent week! For the week ending Oct 17, here is the market tally. Dow closed at +4.7%, S&P500 almost similar +4.7%, NDX: +3.3%, Nasdaq (COMPQ) +3.6% and Russell 2000 almost flat at +0.75%.

    For OPNewsletter, it was rather an unusual month. We opened one mini-portfolio consisting of options in Russell 2000, that was officially closed for +9% gains including commissions. Thereafter sensing market collapse I stayed away from investing for OPNewsletter we were in cash throughout the past 4weeks. Cash surely outperformed the market during which Dow lost almost 3,000 points. The results doesn’t include my trade alerts for speculative trades (mostly bearish). Well in this bearish market there was a bullish call too :

    Watch out for bullish BTU, but only if it crosses > $30.25, you may choose either Bull Put Spread, or straight call (but straight call lose due to IV loss) or any other way…you may choose covered call as well…keep very tight stop loss, kinda $28 or so..

    Also Since Sept 29th, we have already started preparing for the upcopming bull market (not investing yet, it’s only preparation to find quality stocks). On Monday, I also shared a list of 80 stocks that are making to my value screen and some of those are now below my price targets. In fact I shared one value stock that is hammered so badly in the past few weeks that it’s share prices is almost half of it’s book value. It’s levered but leverage ratio is still below the S&P500 (these are only one of few valuation indicators). I shared how I played it so that my effective cost was almost 15% lower than market price.

    I also published a special report (for OPN members only) sharing my view of what to expect and what to do about the broader conditions in the market. No, this doesn’t have a stock idea but it deals with the market psychology.

    I am in the process of selecting portfolio and trades for Nov’08. You may want to sign-up for OPNewsletter as to benefit from the a) fresh portfolios, b) my special/directional picks, c) my list of potential value stocks, d) general almost daily market comments and e) member’s sharing on the forum.

    Stay cautious, Stay profitable, OP

  • Where is the Bull?

    Amongst all the bearishness in the market you might think there is none except one obvious answer OIL. There are many areas that are just moving up with their own share of correction along the up way.

    I have been mentioning my “Fantastic Four” for quite sometime. Even since my last post, in just less than two weeks POT is up >+10%, MOS is up >+20%, CF is also up >+10%, and MON >+5% after touching 52wk high. In fact, Intrepid Potash (IPI) touched 52wks high today (My post here). But keeping them is not easy and requires guts, well more than guts it is how well one hedges against any sharp corrections on the way up. A very simple and popular way will be buy puts and fund the cost by selling calls. For instance POT is currently $223, so you buy 220 puts and sell OOM calls to offset the cost of puts. I shall cover this in more details some other day.

    Another sector on the roll is coal. Check out the PCX, ANR, BTU, FDG, and ACI. Oil has its impact of alternative energy fuels as well. As Oil prices are climbing higher, all other energy resources are becoming cheaper relative to oil. One may argue why Rails are falling apart, but there is more to rails than just oil’s rise. But still it’s not a beaten down sector if you look at short term horizon of say 3months.

    Above are just two examples. You may find even more. However, as these are moving-up, the risk of their fall is also increasing. So be careful about your entry and exit points.

    Last point, the bull is on the downside as well. It’s all a matter of perspective. Almost similar strategies can be created for the downward move. However, the risk is higher. Our human brain in general is “bullish” so at the first moment of upward move (assuming I am bearish), I am more “panicked” than if I would if I were bullish and if there was a reversal.

    Have fun, Profitable trading, OP