Summary of FOMC Minutes

Bottom line – Deeper recession and slower growth.

No questions about it, the real GDP would contract this year, that the unemployment rate would increase in coming quarters, and that inflation would be slower this year than in recent years.

The near-term outlook for economic activity has weakened relative to the projections they made at the time of the January FOMC meeting, but they continued to expect a recovery in sales and production to begin during the second half of 2009.

All anticipated that unemployment, though declining in coming years, would remain well above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011; expect the economy to take five or six years to converge to a longer- run path characterized by a sustainable rate of output growth and by rates of unemployment and inflation consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives..

Their projections for economic activity and inflation remained subject to a degree of uncertainty exceeding historical norms. Projections for 2009 real GDP growth negative 2.0% to negative 1.3%. Looking further ahead, participants’ projections for real GDP growth in 2010 had a central tendency of 2.0 to 3.0% (My thoughts- I guess that’s pretty optimistic but the base will be low to compare).

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Profitable Trading, OP






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