Some “Cautious” Break-out play

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Here is a list of potential break-out play. But before you dive into the list, be very very careful. That’s the way I think about the current markets. Any rally may disappear very quickly. Other then gold and oil, there is nothing else certain.

fslr-nov-7-2007.png Let start with First Solar (FSLR). It touched the upper band of the channel, rather I should say it closed above that on very strong volumes. However, this is going to announce results after market close today and I shall close it before market closes. At the same time, I shall also be playing earnings but on the lower band side i.e. Puts of Nov 140 with the speculation that it will falter if it doesn’t meet expectations. If it does and goes higher, then all this will result into 100% loss for Nov 140 Puts.

oxy-nov-7-2007.pngOccidental Petroleum (OXY) is another one I am looking at. My target will be $78-82 area. Volume was pretty good as well. I have been bullish on Oil and have challenged many thought leaders on this for a while. We are reaching $100 level and that will start constipation for literally every company and country dependent on Oil or Oil products.

ma-nov-7-2007.png MasterCard (MA) is another play I am watching closely and will get in. I mentioned Mastercard y’day as well and congrats to those who rode the wave and profited from it.

I am not mentioning the entry/exit points as it depends on “dust settling” price. I don’t plan to keep anything long given the uncertainty in the market. 12-20% profit and I am out (on the loss as well).

One thing that I am sure of, is Gold and it will not deter from going-up at least till it crosses high of 1980s.

New addition to OP’s Toolbox: If you are looking for historical charts, I have recently added a site in OP’s toolbox for historical charts of interest.

Trade carefully, trade profitably, OP






4 responses to “Some “Cautious” Break-out play”

  1. Sri Avatar


    How about the risk/reward of using put backspreads instead of a straight puts on FSLR.


  2. OptionPundit Avatar

    Sri, though backspread could be a good idea, I don’t like it for risk/reward scenario in current circumstances. Firstly longs are expensive (so are shorts as well) and to make money, it needs to move a lot. In current scenario if I look for those moves, I would rather buy straight call and puts vs backspread. I found backspread to be very useful particularly in the Options expiration week. One could also look at double calendar.

    Cheers and profitable trading, OP

  3. […] is breaking down. I mentioned in my post before market opened that I shall be playing Nov 140 puts and here I am. As of this post’s writing, FSLR was down […]

  4. […] this reminds me how important it is to hedge well for any earning’s play. I mentioned it for break-out play then intraday for break-down and I also mentioned my game-plan for earning’s […]

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