OP Newsletter: Outperformance (Mar’08, +2.0%)

Published on February 9, 2008

OP Newsletter: Outperformance (Mar’08, +2.0%)

February 9, 2008

US Market gave back all the gains it registered a week before. Across the board, we saw nearly -4% declines in the Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq. On contrary OP Newsletter Mar’08 portfolio went-up +2.0% in it’s 1 st week of opening. We opened two portfolios and both are positive. We are not yet quite done with all the portfolios and we’ll be opening few more in coming days depending upon market conditions.

Also listed ATW and CF for earning play:

ATW and CF are the two names I am monitoring for earnings. Both of these are announcing earnings tomorrow after market close. I am quite positive for a bullish bias but it may end-up in breaking down as well.

Both of these companies have been flying high. While CF has recovered a lot, ATW hasn’t. In case you would like to speculate, you may include these two in your list. I am biased for ATW, for positive surprise.

Both announced great results but faded very quickly. I registered 50% gains on ATW earnings. We decided to play both of these underlying provided intra-day set-up is achieved.

CF : If it crosses $112.10, then only. But it will find resistance around $115. One needs to be very nimble and quick in decision making.
ATW : If it crosses $89.1, then only. But it will find initial resistance at $90 and then at $93. The best way to play is to listen to its conference call at 11am ET and trade based on the news

atw-intraday-chart.pngCF never crossed 112 again, but ATW did. I opened it as soon as it crossed $89.10 while listening to the conference call. Everything was going fine except toward the end of presentation when CFO referred outlook by saying “First Call estimates are too high” and see the drop in stock price. Very rapid, registered a loss of nearly 7% on my 90 call march options. Why am I sharing this- “Listening to earning conference call does pay rich dividends for intra day trading.”

Coming back to US Markets, sectors that were strong are medical labs, research, healthcare, drugs, medical equipment and supplies, healthcare information, and beverages. The worst performing sectors includes semiconductors, residential construction, credit services, banks, construction, farm products, and the list goes on.

Next week is options expiration week and therefore prepare for the volatility. Markets can swing in either direction and yeah, Uncle Ben is scheduled to speak on Thursday.

Feb 14, the Valentine’s Day is also in next week. Amid all the market volatilities, don’t forget THE DAY, else, you know what I mean……go shopping this weekend!

Profitable trading, OP

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