I Couldn’t have Forecasted Any Better

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I think I couldn’t have forecasted any better. The markets behaved precisely the way I captured in my pre and post Fed announcement posts (Scenario-1). Thank your OP readers for your e-mails.

First of all, it turned out to be a prudent move to close most of my portfolio well before the Fed announcement. Nov’07 portfolio is up over +15% (only 2 mini-portfolios are still opened). There are 3 more weeks for Nov’07 expiration so I can re-invest these freed funds either for Nov or can soon start December portfolio. FYI, here is the snapshot of what I have closed for this month-

  1. MON, +45.9%
  2. BHP, +30.5%
  3. DE, +17.2%
  4. BG, +5.7%

On the speculative side, XLI, XLB dropped sharply well before I could even close those. But thanks to GDX Vegas and FXI straight puts. These helped cushion any meaningful loss on remaining open positions.

crox-nov-2-2007.pngThank you CROX! Though I loved your rise to top, I am loving the fall even more. Here is the closure of one trade for +68.8% (Nov 45puts) in less than 15minutes. Nov 40 puts are trading in positive territory as well but I am still keeping that for a little while as those are now almost free (due to profits on Nov 45 puts). I originally wanted to send this via E-Alerts but it moved very very quickly (will get out around 49 on upside and 43.8-42.5 on downside).

dow-trans-nov-2-2007.pngI am restating what I mentioned in my earlier post, watch out for around 12,800 for Dow and about4,660 for Dow Transport. If both are breaking below this, I am fully out of the way of bears with due respect to their move.

Have fun with volatility, profitable trading, OP






4 responses to “I Couldn’t have Forecasted Any Better”

  1. Tony Chai Avatar

    Hi OP :

    Nice trade on CROX. Never expected CROX to crash that much this quarter.


    Tony Chai
    My Options Trading Blog

  2. OptionPundit Avatar

    Thanks Tony. Let’s Mr Market change the mood the way it likes and we’ll benefit from its emotional irrationality.

    Profitable trading, OP

  3. […] And what happened? see FXI and FXI 175 put comparison chart. It doubled even if someone bot it next morning. Hang Seng did drop close to 1000 points and Dow touched about 13,000. Let me reiterate, I am watching for any break below 12,800 as mentioned earlier. […]

  4. […] it has happened! Recall a chart I shared on Nov 2, here is it how it looks. I have now changed my positions to bearish (as if I am trading, I […]

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