Category: Technical Analysis
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Can You Afford to Ignore This Divergence, Now?
The last time I mentioned this divergence was in November 2007 and it did flash future turbulence, later to be known (and still is) as The Great Recession. This 100 year old indicator can’t be used for day to day market movements but it can define turning points on the macroeconomic level. Are things different…
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How High is High for S&P500?
It’s been 5 years since markets bottomed in Mar’09; S&P500 touched 200days moving average during Nov’12 and since then it has been almost 15months for this uninterrupted move. Markets have withered all kind of storms be it weather, taper-on/taper-off tantrums, government shut down, debt ceiling and all sorts of macro-economic data good or bad. Good…
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First Sell Signal of 2013
It was yet another 90% down day, after an “interesting” Friday as expected. I did mention about purchasing some OOM calls before market close on Thursdays in anticipation of Friday move (which follows a consistent pattern). Yesterday was highest intraday range for SPX since Nov 7 drop. As of close Feb 25 2013, I have the…
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Why and Who is Buying Puts now?
Markets are rallying, but then why and who is buying those S&P500 puts? Why is there such a steep premium between VIX Cash Index and VIX Future prices. The Spread is at the widest. The CBOE Skew Index is in the top quartile, Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (CSFB Fear Index) is at record levels. If…
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Get Ready
Making predictions is a risky business. As a market participant, the best one can do is to make forecast and assign probabilities. Since my last post, markets have been grinding higher but the pace is slowing down. Nothing significant has been achieved on big picture basis. At times, I think it’s Greece that’s keeping markets…
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Time to Choose Your Side, Bull or Bear?
A fantastic January for stock markets! probably the best in decades. US stock prices doesn’t really indicate any Euro Crisis whatsoever. There are hardly any signs of recessions or double dip (remember those were so loud and clear till Nov’11). Doesn’t Mr Market discounts everything 6months in advance? Since S&P500 touched 1074.77 in early Oct’11,…
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Get Ready
Yesterday was second consecutive 90% down days, another “down days pair” just after a week. Mind it, this “Down day pair” i.e. two 90% down days consecutively is a rare event which indicates oversold state of the markets. In the normal days, a 90% down day is followed by 2-7days of technical rebound. Albeit, ever…
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Interesting Times Ahead
Even though markets closed in positive territory on Thursday, down volume was 52% of up + down volume. There were 16 new 52 Wks high while 82 were at new 52wks low. On NYSE 1377 stocks advanced and 1682 issues declined. During after hrs, RIMM announced poor set of results and the stock was down…
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Don’t Simply Ignore this Divergence
Over past 2-3 decades, Stock Market Technical analysis has developed into a full professional career. And if one is willing to learn and master it, there are certified programs like Chartered Market Technicians or popularly known as CMT. Some traders live by it day-in-day-out, while others think that charts are nothing but randomly distributed events…