Category: Forex Options

  • Will US Dollar Continue To Strengthen?

    The US dollar index rose quickly over the past few trading days. Other major currencies like the EURO, Pound, Aussie etc weakened against the dollar and I am tempted to short them. However I am hesitant to do so as I noticed that the dollar index is approaching a resistance zone (see the red box in the attached chart). If the dollar index rally falters at resistance, other major currencies may cease to weaken and shorting them will then prove to be a bad decision. If the dollar index slices through resistance easily, I may miss some opportunities but I rather play safe and wait.

    Income Via Future Options

    To me, the only currency that is moving in a clear direction now is the Japanese Yen, which I mentioned in a previous post.

    If the dollar index pushes through resistance and continues its climb, EURO and AUSSIE would become prime candidates to short. I will watch the dollar index closely and provide updates in due course.

    Cheers,
    Ethan

  • How to Trade Japanese Yen via Options

    Forex market is a big market providing round the clock trading as well as huge leverage. Leverage is a double edge sword. If you are not hedging properly, then forex trading could also mean a ticket to emptying your trading account quickly. So if you want to trade forex but still want to limit your risk exposure without gluing to screen, Forex options can offer a good alternative to trading FX spot.

    Japenese Yen is currently trading at 15 year low levels. A strong yen hurts Japan which is a export driven economy. Part of the reason why it is strengthening so much against the US dollar is also attributed to Japanese govt not doing enough to stop to the rise. If I refer to USD/JPY currency pair, it is in a downtrend, a very strong one which is very close to almost 20 years low when US$1 amounted to only 79.75 JPY. As of this writing, JPY is trading almost at 1US$=83 JPY.

    If you have a bullish out on JPY, YUK (Yen FX Index, Traded on ISE) can offer a better alternative as opposed to directly trading with FX spot market.

    Let’s take a trade example-

    If I decide to buy Oct 84 YUK calls, it was trading for $1.06 (mid price) when YUK closed at $83.7. Assuming these prices, maximum risk is only $106 and no matter how low USDJPY pair go, once can not lose more than this. However, if USDJPY rises to even ~86.5 in the next 30 days one is looking at almost doubling his/ her gains on these options.

    This example is to show that without taking unnecessary risk of FX spot market, you may still benefit should the Yen rise from the bottom. Now what if it doesn’t go up but trade in a sideways range? That’s even better for option traders as you may design as many market neutral or range bound strategies for example Double Diagonals, Iron Condors, Calendars and so on which has limited risk/limited reward potential.

    So next time you think of trading forex, but are scared by the negative side of leverage, give options a try. You may unearth some real money making opportunites without rising too much.

    Profitable Trading, OP