Category: Calendar spread

  • How To Calculate VIX Options Calendar Spreads Margin Requirement

    The Volatility Index (VIX), also widely known as “The Fear Index” has been gaining lot of popularity especially after the recent financial crisis. These days almost every major asset class has its corresponding VIX, and in fact several countries have introduced VIX equivalent for their leading market indices. After several months of trading it personally and refining selection criteria, I introduced VIX calendar spreads for OP Income Newsletter in 2009-10. Now this is almost one of the most regular income trade (assuming my selection criteria is met). We trade both VIX Cash Index as well as VIX futures and past performance trading record is absolutely fantastic.

    (If you are not an OPNewsletter member , pls click here for a RISK FREE sign-up).

    Trading VIX calendars is one of the most interesting play in the option’s world. And one needs to be careful before trading it as your risk may not the similar as in implied via regular calendar spread. You may lose more than the debit you pay for. And the key reason is that VIX options are priced based on VIX futures, not VIX cash index.

    Equity long calendar spreads don’t require margin. Your cost is the debit you pay. However, VIX calendar spreads requires margins. One of the key things that I get asked time and time again about VIX calendars is how to calculate margin requirement for VIX calendar spreads and thus the idea behind this post.

    In order to test margins I used ThinkorSwim to check their margin requirements. I used mid prices as of March 26th close. So here is how April/May calendar will look like-

    • Sell to Open VIX April 16 Call and  Buy to Open VIX May 16 Call
    • Total Buying Power Effect : $432.50 including $105 debit +Commissions
    • Thus April/May cost: $432.50
    • May/June costs $502.50
    • Jun/Jul is costs $562.50
    • Jul/Aug costs $600 and
    • Aug/ Sept costs $645 including $45 debit;

    Thus as you can see, the margin requirement change as you move from adjacent month to next and so on. IB shows $150 as margin requirement in pre-trade screen but actually the margin is shown once you confirm the trade. Here is what IB says about the VIX margin requirements –

    Specific options with commodity-like behavior, such as VIX Index Options, have special spread rules and, consequently, may be required to meet higher margin requirements than a straightforward US equity option. Clients are urged to use the paper trading account to simulate an options spread in order to check the current margin on such spread.

    There you go, “commodity like behavior”. Though pre-order screen of IB shows margin requirement as $150, you should check it once you are in the trade or do so via paper trading on IB software. I think it is inline with other brokers and as per exchange policy.

    Thereafter I referred to CBOE website to see if I can find something, here is what CBOE states about VIX–

    – Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full.
    – Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.)
    – Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.

    Or to put this into a formula-

    Index Options: Call Price + Maximum ((15% * Underlying Price – Out of the Money Amount),
    (10% * Underlying Price))

    Above explanation is for writing naked or uncovered. But one may argue, we have a long same strike option so I am covered like in equity options. This is where things get more interesting.

    So here is my hypothesis about the VIX options, In case of VIX, most brokers’ treats short side of the calendar as a short call. And long position that you use for covering the risk, is considered as a long position. Thus usually the margin requirement will be Margin on Short side+ Cost of Long Side option.

    (If you are not an OPNewsletter member , pls click here for a RISK FREE sign-up).

    Another key thing to note, the margin requirement will change according to the price change in VIX. Let’s test the hypothesis (Prices as of March 26th close)-

    • Margin required for shorting April 16 Naked call- $255.50 (as per ThinkorSwim)
    • Option premium for April 16 Call- $72
    • The asking price for Long May 16 call is $177
    • Thus total cost of the spread for 1 Long April/May calendar is $255.50+$177= $432.50)

    Is there a straight answer for you to calculate the margins? No, I haven’t found any. But the above does provide a reasonable idea on what kind of margins are required. For OP Income Newsletter, when I trade VIX calendars, I use roughly $500 as margin requirement per calendar.

    So here are the key take ways-

    1. Margins on VIX calendars are = Roughly $250 + Price of long Legged call, it’s NOT just the debit you pay for.
    2. Higher-up the expiration cycle, higher the cost of long leg and thus higher cost of calendar spread.
    3. The margin requirement will change depending upon VIX levels. It is never constant.
    4. You can lose more in VIX calendar spread than the debit you paid for. ( I shall explain this in another post).

    Hopefully, this clears some doubts on how VIX calendar margins are calculated. You may want to check with your respective brokers on how VIX margins are being calculated. If you have feedback or corrections about the post above, I shall be more than happy to correct and update.

    (If you are not an OPNewsletter member , pls click here for a RISK FREE sign-up).

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter Oct’10 Up 7.7%, Gear-up for Earnings

    Undoubtedly GOOG earning play was a star trade generating over +800% gains in a day. It wasn’t sheer luck, we prepared ourselves for it. I shall share our exact trade after earning season is over as we plan to use similar strategies for AAPL and later for some more counters during this earning season.

    For the month of Oct expiration, OPN portfolio gained +7.7% on a maximum investment on 63.8% of the portfolio capital. This was our 32nd positive month out of past 34 months despite the worst financial crisis since the great depression. These results exclude P&L from speculative trades or trades mentioned on the OptionPundit blog or on InvesCafe. Here is the tally-

    – POT Income Portfolio: +45.9%
    – NDX iron Condor: +1%
    – Google OPN Portfolio: -16.7%
    – DIA: -2.08%
    – EWZ: +2.9%
    – IWM Portfolio: +10.9%
    – NKE Income Portfolio: +91.5%

    However, as I shared fills for my speculative part of the NDX iron condor trade, the trade generated +37% on the original base of $2K/ spread. That’s a magnificent returns considering that NDX moved over 200 points in one direction only and we didn’t do any adjustment since Sept 21.

    POT This was another star portfolio that generated excellent returns >+45% for less than 1 weeks holding. This wasn’t a speculative trade, but we let it run as the gains were accumulated due to rising IV while underlying didn’t move much. Google Income portfolio didn’t work out as I was expecting. I didn’t use any other combinations of backspreads/verticals/straight calls or puts (like I did in July) to keep it simple. I have shared my perspective about this portfolio. We played NKE earning as part of Income portfolio and within a day of holding this portfolio generated 91.5% returns.

    OP Speculative trades-
    These are bonus trades and are not part of the OPNewsletter and hence the P&L IS NOT part of OPNewsletter performance. We spend only a fraction of the overall capital for these trades and think of it is as accelerators (if we are right) but not as a dampner (if we are wrong). For instance, the Google trade delivered almost $1,500 for each $175 investment (for those who had $10K capital) that alone accelerates the capital gains by roughly 15% on the overall portfolio capital.

    We were stopped out of TLT, TIN was almost break-even. MOS generated +12 to +17% gains for one day holding, JPM generated from -55% loss to +100% profits; then we had great wins/partial loss on USDJPY pair via YUK calls

    OPBlog Trades– Gold, suggested on Sept 2 when it was around 1,250 and since then gold is up almost $100/ounce.

    Invescafe/Twitter Positions– I don’t send alerts for these trades as these are neither part of OPN nor bonus trade alerts and the key reason is because the trade time span can be from 5-10mins to hours and OPN members may not be able to reap benefits as by the time they receive these alerts, it will be too late for them.

    SIGA for +80% for 1 day holding, EQIX for > +50% profits, intraday,  TBT 30/28 BPS > +50% profits, TBT up over 10% since then, AXP +9%, AAPL, NFLX generated +150% and there are many more, check out my InvesCafe updates.

    While reviewing these results, pls keep the overall macro economic environmental context in mind. Sept (usually a bad month for markets) was a record month for S&P500 almost in 50years, a challenging month of non-directional income traders!!! The uncertainty is unusual, short interests are sky high. Yields on both Bonds and Stocks are almost at bottom. The expectations on returns are dismal at best.

    On the other hand, here at OptionPundit, OPN members/readers out of “stocks” since early April 2010, reminded them there is no such thing as “America Won’t recognize itself by the end of 2010” as projected by several top analysts and time and again talked about Feb Low, 10.3k and 10.7K for Dow. We are not taking unnecessary risk yet our returns are still respectable by almost any rationale standard.

    Trading is not about beating the market, always. No one can do that. Just like any other business, trading is a business and needs to be treated that way. We’ll have our shares of wins/losses. As long as we are humble and keep the “ego” at bay, learn from our mistakes and continuously sharpen our craft we’ll develop our own trading style. And if it is indeed a business then it’s not a destination but a journey through thick and thin of varying seasons.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    It was and still is, preserving capital is more important than a potential opportunity. Capital is for real, opportunity is “potential”.

    Congratulations on another successful month.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter Aug +8.4% (closed), Sept +4.3% (Open)

    OPNewsletter delivered +8.46% for the Aug 2010 Income portfolio on a 51% portfolio capital investment. As you may know, since mid of April 2010 we reduced our capital allocation to trading as we were anticipating this market meltdown which started around 3-4th week of April. For Sept 2010 opened portfolios, we are up +4.3% and these results do not include results from speculative/bonus trades.

    This is our 31st positive month, out of a total 33 months of Paid Subscription based OptionPundit newsletter throughout the phase-1 and phase-2 and these times include one of the worst market conditions since the 1930s.

    At present, OPNewsletter clients include ordinary part-time traders to professional Wall Street traders (trading their personal accounts) from over 20 countries and their trading experience varies from a few years to almost 2 decades of options trading. The live forum lives to help where community of traders share ideas and comment on other’s trades as well. Not only we do Iron Condor, we also invest Calendars, diagonals, double diagonals, backspread and many more. We have also started reviewing (with real-money) option trades for newly introduced weeklies (currently AAPL is up +24%, AMZN is up +30% and GOOG is almost breakeven). This is how whole trading experience comes to live real time.

    Trade what you know, learn what you don’t know !

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Delivering consistency isn’t about trading 1 Iron Condor/month for a small size capital account. When you are trading a US$100,000 account that requires patience, discipline, a well defined control over greed & fear and strategies that are beyond just 1 Iron Condor. And there are many traders in OPNewsletter who trade with over US$100,000 capital. Preserving capital then takes higher priority order as opposed to investing every opportunity you see. At times, you will let go opportunities (hindsight bias) in anticipation of major market moves that might derail the portfolios. We place hedges, which sometimes are one of the dampeners for higher results but that’s ok, that’s part-n-parcel of trading life.

    No matter how much marketing blitz would like you to believe, there is no “secret” to trading success; it is the EXTRA DEGREE of perseverance, EXTRA DEGREE of risk management, EXTRA DEGREE of disciplined trading, EXTRA DEGREE of what if scenario planning and EXTRA DEGREE of “Rational Expectations”.

    Welcome to OptionPundit! The EXTRA DEGREE in your option trading.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

  • Agility Vs Doing Nothing

    While at times market action may require one to be extremely agile, other times it requires you to do nothing. And the hardest thing for a trader is to do nothing . That’s the business of Trading which deals with human emotions, uncertainly and dependency. This is like uncertainty raised to the power of 3.

    Let me elaborate this via example. Below is what I wrote in my general market comments to OPN Member, before market opened today.-

    Think again, revised from 2.4% to 1.6%, we are talking a big revision…at least the way I think. Consumer sentiment data will be out in 30mins time @955 est, I don’t think it is going to be good. But in any case I will be glad to be wrong. As I mentioned on Invescafe, I shall close my bullish “personal” positions before that.

    Then on Invescafe, I mentioned that I shall be buying GOOG and AAPL weekly bearish positions before the consumer data. As soon as the data was out, the markets tumbled. Dow dropped almost 100 points from it’s intraday high and we generated almost 100% returns on both apple as well google within 5-6mins. That’s agility (or call it active trading where the trade life span is only few minutes). One the other hand, we have OPNewsletter income portfolios we are not trading actively, almost doing nothing and collecting checks from Mr Theta. Inspite of these volatile moves we are nicely up.

    The speculative trades that requires agility are done with fraction of capital, while income trades uses most of the portfolio capital i.e. that’s where the bread-n-butter comes from. When trading markets, it’s important to have nice balance between speculative as well as income trades. Capital allocation becomes a key factor too (Remember- Anything X Zero = Zero). And when the two are combined with a well defined trading discipline, options’ trading becomes easier.

    Easier said than done.

    Chart Courtesy LiveVol.com

    We are doing a few options trades around weeklies. The results are encouraging and inspite of such market fluctuations, the results are encouragning. On AAPL and AMZN we have generated double digit gains in 1 week. To take this trading to a next level, I have also opened a position on NDX (Nasdaq-100) by placing a 1775 calendar (short next week/Long sept) as I expect market to be in a sideways move (I may be wrong) after today’s rally. Attached is the visual representation of options skew between different months. As you can see, these are not normal times. The IV of long dated options is much higher then short dated options. I shall update the results next week.

    Have a great weekend, Profitable Trading, OP

    OP @ InvesCafe

  • OPNewsletter Jul 2010 Up +8.3%

    We are on track for our 28th positive month of OPNewsletter phase-2, as of last Friday close OPNewsletter Jul 2010 portfolio is up +8.3% on the maximum investment of almost 60% of portfolio capital. We have started opening Aug 2010 portfolios and our first portfolio is already positive.

    Let’s talk consistency first, especially on trades like Iron condor which is probably the most widely used option trading strategy. OPNewsletter has lost only 1 month of RUT iron condor since May 2008, and the drawdown was only 7.15% while gains have been around 12% on average per month. RUT Iron Condor for July 2010 resulted into +23% gains. If someone has invested US$10K, only in OPN RUT Iron Condor, this 10K would have grown over 5 times to $56K since May 2008. This period includes probably one of the most volatile stock market moves of our lifetime. Of course, I don’t recommend traders to invest all the money in iron condors only and which is why we have portfolio approach at OPNewsletter, to diversify risk/rewards.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    During the month of July, we also opend, for first time, an Income portfolio on Google. Just for perspective, since our opening of this portfolio on June 14th, google moved from $480 to $506 and then from $506 to $434 almost without a pause. This portfolio has provided a great deal of learnings e.g. during this period, one of our backspread we opened for only $0.65 debit moved past to show $10 gains!!! Though it was tough and very volatile move, we still managed to gain 4% gains as of Friday close (still open) and we are in for the earning week and out theta gains are a few % points per day.

    Even though VIX and other implied volatility fell through the cliff in general, our Double calendar resulted into above +20% gains and Double Diagonal in positive (still open).

    These results do not include gains/losses on the speculative trades. It also feels good when I find adding value to subscribers as OPNewsletter members were already warned of the coming meltdown since mid April via constance market updates/projections. Though no one can be perfect or correct all the time, so far OPN has been able to serve well.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter April (Open) +9.8%, May (Open) +2.6%

    Though we shifted our option trading strategy in way so that more trading alerts can be sent during “pre and post market hours” vs during market hours to allow even working professionals to benefit, OPNewsletter is still not about “make money” in 5min per day. It still requires one to think and act vs let robots do it for them (at least to begin with). There are no short cuts for making money, consistently. Making money is a hard work and requires one to be patient and to learn and continuously sharpen the craft. OPNewsletter April portfolios are up +9.8% while May portfolios are up +2.6% (both are still opened). If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the wait list as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Let me use an analogy on why I say making money requires discipline and hard work especially for new traders-

    Before one get to a earn say $5-$7k/month; an engineer need to go through 4 years of professional education including one or two summer projects before he is allowed to be even called an Engineer Trainee. Medical professional is required even much more rigorous training before one is allowed to even touch knives for first surgery. Then why do people think trading is any different if it were to give you $5-7k/month to start? It’s because the “barriers to entry” are almost nothing; give a call to a broker, he can do the paper work for you, set you up with an electronic trading account, help you personally to transfer funds and all set and most novice traders can enticed by the marketing sales pitch that you sign-up for blah/blah and you can make money in 5mins/day. It doesn’t take long before one starts to realize that trading is not easy as it seems on the surface (sadly after either account is wiped out or suffered a major loss) . Making big %  may be fine for small capital account, but when it comes to large capital accounts, it is a completely different game. (How large are the investments via OPNewsletter Portfolio?)

    Let me ask a question, assume you make $10k/month; assume a good job with perfect work life balance; assume you work for 40hrs/week, 4 wk/month, that’s 160hrs/month, and this your monthly profit before tax. Have you spent 160hrs before investing $10K in that “idea/hot tip”? If not, why do you expect results to be different assuming you are not a professional trader/investor and are not equipped with “investment/trading” training?

    More on this later. Let me comeback to OPNewsletter performance.

    One of the ways I manage OPNewsletter is through capital allocation. I use US$10 K as the model portfolio (I invest my real money in those portfolios, and then in some more) which I then allocate across multiple portfolios, multiple option trading strategies to diversify the risk.

    We invested a maximum of 88.15% of $10k this month; and April portfolio is up +9.8% as of Thursday close. I use maximum capital employed as a base for calculating results even though the cash is available through closure of some portfolio; thus my results are conservative. As of Thursday close, we have 28.93% cash from April portfolio; and 95% of this (~27.6% of 10K) is invested for May portfolio which is also up +2.6%; Net, we have 1.26% cash available from $10K and have both April as well as May income portfolios both of which are up as of Thursday close. Option Trading strategies used were Double Diagonal, Iron Condor, Iron Fly, Butterfly Spreads, Credit spreads, Calendar spreads, Vertical spreads and some more.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    We closed some April portfolios and then reinvested the cash into other portfolios for the same month or for the next month thus effectively multiplying returns on our money. To share an example, we opened FDX income portfolio with 9.5% of $10K capital; the portfolio was closed for +27% gains, part of the cash thus generated was redeployed for opening an Iron Condor for Russell 2000 (RUT) for May 2010.

    We had earlier opened Iron Fly of Nike (NKE), ATM butterfly on Pepsi (PEP) which resulted into +24% gains and +62.3% gains respectively and the cash thus generated was used for placing a hedge for our April NDX Iron Condor. The Hedge was placed on Thursday before market close to protect our portfolio against any sharp move might result from unemployment report. Thus by effectively managing the hedge, we are fine (short term) regardless how much NDX moves on Monday.

    To put things into a different perspective, if you were to go for a seminar/workshop to just learn how to trade Iron condor (and some other strategies we use) and how to protect those (theoretically), that learning itself is worth several month’s (if not years) OPN subscription fee.

    Portfolio insurance (aka Hedging) costs money (reduces returns) but that’s always in the hindsight. Just like insurance, you do it to safeguard against any disaster. You spend this money for the things you don’t want to happen.

    Our first hedge was against any sharp downward move that were to happen due to Health care bill being either approved or disapproved. Markets didn’t react thus we lost some money on that, but then we converted into a bullish spread and reduced the hedging expense. We could have still kept it till April expiration and completely eliminate the expense, but I chose to close it to redeploy the capital to open other portfolios for a better risk/reward ratio.

    Our 2nd hedge was against our Nike (NKE) income Iron Fly. This hedge cost us about 19% of the NKE income portfolio; but we still netted with a +24% return on portfolio. Excluding the hedge, the returns would have been above +42%. The portfolio still had potential to double the gains, but I decided to take it off before the unemployment report; when trading is a business, operating discipline is important and one needs to follow a plan to make money consistently. Speculation is fine but that has a separate place and completely different game.

    Not all the portfolios are winners. There are losing ones as well and the returns are net of winner and losers. In order to make money consistently one has to keep in mind that Profit Volume (=Winning Occurrence X $$ profit) should be greater than Losing Volume (=Losing Occurrence X $$ loss).

    I don’t count speculative trade’s returns into monthly returns. Even though we had >75% winners and sometimes fairly large returns than losers, the result probabilities before placing the trade don’t favor investing large amount of capital (more spec updates here)

    So far for the month of April, we have 100% success rate on speculative trades. Our BIDU bearish trade resulted into +17.6% gains for two days holding, SLGN (shared it for free) resulted into +26.9% gains for two days holding and we just opened a straddle on WMB.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Profitable Trading, OP