Category: Backspread

  • Show Me How to Fish +100% in Polycom (PLCM)?

    Polycom Inc (PLCM) missed both earnings as well as revenue estimates and as of this writing, PLCM shares are down almost 32% !!! Options were pricing a 18-20% type of move and this was also part of my “potential movers” list that I shared before market close yesterday.

    So, with the hindsight benefit, how could one generate wonderful returns from such an event?

    Recall, sometime back I shared a beautiful option trading strategy called “Backspread- Strategy for Large Moves”.

    A backspread is the sale of an option(s) and the purchase of a greater number of the same type of options that are out-of-the-money with respect to the one(s) purchased. For example, an 80/90 put 1-by-3 backspread is long 3*80 puts and short 1*90 put. The Opposite for this trade is called Ratio spread.

    As I mentioned, I was expecting a large move of roughly 20% on PLCM so I constructed a paper trade to experiment with this. The trade was-

    • Sell 2 Nov 25 Puts and buy 3 Nov 22.5 Puts.

    This trade resulted in a $100 credit for every $400 risk. Maximum risk will occur if PLCM didn’t move and stayed at 22.5 by Friday expiration. Since I was bearish so I constructed a trade that will gain nicely in the bearish direction. Breakeven points were $18.5 and $25.


    The Trade was closed for $3.20 credit. Thus overall gains are $100 +$320= $420, while the risk was $4.00, thus essentially delivering almost 105% gains.
    What if PLCM actually beat the earninsgs and stock sky rocketed? Well, in that case I would have collected the $100 credit if PLCM were to be above $25 by this Friday expiration.


    So all sound nice? What’s the catch?

    One needs to be careful of the risk reward. The maximum loss occurs if the stock doesn’t move by expiration. Other loss is driven by IV crash post earnings announcement. To share an example, I was expecting TZOO to move almost 20% as well, but guess what? TZOO hardly moved after initial pop, and had I been in this trade, this would have been a complete loss. For TZOO I chose to play via strangle, which was also a loss as IV crashed and stock didn’t move much.

    Earning Season is great. One can generate quick gains, as well as quick losses. So be careful on what you choose and how you structure your trade.

    Though we trade earnings, speculative as well as directional trades, our main focus is on Income, aim for generating single digit gains on overall portfolio month after month, consistently. These type of speculative trades are used just as an accelerator but are NOT counted in OP Income Newsletter portfolio results. If you would like to join OPNewsletter, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist.

    Happy hunting,
    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter Oct’10 Up 7.7%, Gear-up for Earnings

    Undoubtedly GOOG earning play was a star trade generating over +800% gains in a day. It wasn’t sheer luck, we prepared ourselves for it. I shall share our exact trade after earning season is over as we plan to use similar strategies for AAPL and later for some more counters during this earning season.

    For the month of Oct expiration, OPN portfolio gained +7.7% on a maximum investment on 63.8% of the portfolio capital. This was our 32nd positive month out of past 34 months despite the worst financial crisis since the great depression. These results exclude P&L from speculative trades or trades mentioned on the OptionPundit blog or on InvesCafe. Here is the tally-

    – POT Income Portfolio: +45.9%
    – NDX iron Condor: +1%
    – Google OPN Portfolio: -16.7%
    – DIA: -2.08%
    – EWZ: +2.9%
    – IWM Portfolio: +10.9%
    – NKE Income Portfolio: +91.5%

    However, as I shared fills for my speculative part of the NDX iron condor trade, the trade generated +37% on the original base of $2K/ spread. That’s a magnificent returns considering that NDX moved over 200 points in one direction only and we didn’t do any adjustment since Sept 21.

    POT This was another star portfolio that generated excellent returns >+45% for less than 1 weeks holding. This wasn’t a speculative trade, but we let it run as the gains were accumulated due to rising IV while underlying didn’t move much. Google Income portfolio didn’t work out as I was expecting. I didn’t use any other combinations of backspreads/verticals/straight calls or puts (like I did in July) to keep it simple. I have shared my perspective about this portfolio. We played NKE earning as part of Income portfolio and within a day of holding this portfolio generated 91.5% returns.

    OP Speculative trades-
    These are bonus trades and are not part of the OPNewsletter and hence the P&L IS NOT part of OPNewsletter performance. We spend only a fraction of the overall capital for these trades and think of it is as accelerators (if we are right) but not as a dampner (if we are wrong). For instance, the Google trade delivered almost $1,500 for each $175 investment (for those who had $10K capital) that alone accelerates the capital gains by roughly 15% on the overall portfolio capital.

    We were stopped out of TLT, TIN was almost break-even. MOS generated +12 to +17% gains for one day holding, JPM generated from -55% loss to +100% profits; then we had great wins/partial loss on USDJPY pair via YUK calls

    OPBlog Trades– Gold, suggested on Sept 2 when it was around 1,250 and since then gold is up almost $100/ounce.

    Invescafe/Twitter Positions– I don’t send alerts for these trades as these are neither part of OPN nor bonus trade alerts and the key reason is because the trade time span can be from 5-10mins to hours and OPN members may not be able to reap benefits as by the time they receive these alerts, it will be too late for them.

    SIGA for +80% for 1 day holding, EQIX for > +50% profits, intraday,  TBT 30/28 BPS > +50% profits, TBT up over 10% since then, AXP +9%, AAPL, NFLX generated +150% and there are many more, check out my InvesCafe updates.

    While reviewing these results, pls keep the overall macro economic environmental context in mind. Sept (usually a bad month for markets) was a record month for S&P500 almost in 50years, a challenging month of non-directional income traders!!! The uncertainty is unusual, short interests are sky high. Yields on both Bonds and Stocks are almost at bottom. The expectations on returns are dismal at best.

    On the other hand, here at OptionPundit, OPN members/readers out of “stocks” since early April 2010, reminded them there is no such thing as “America Won’t recognize itself by the end of 2010” as projected by several top analysts and time and again talked about Feb Low, 10.3k and 10.7K for Dow. We are not taking unnecessary risk yet our returns are still respectable by almost any rationale standard.

    Trading is not about beating the market, always. No one can do that. Just like any other business, trading is a business and needs to be treated that way. We’ll have our shares of wins/losses. As long as we are humble and keep the “ego” at bay, learn from our mistakes and continuously sharpen our craft we’ll develop our own trading style. And if it is indeed a business then it’s not a destination but a journey through thick and thin of varying seasons.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    It was and still is, preserving capital is more important than a potential opportunity. Capital is for real, opportunity is “potential”.

    Congratulations on another successful month.

    Profitable Trading, OP

  • OPNewsletter Aug +8.4% (closed), Sept +4.3% (Open)

    OPNewsletter delivered +8.46% for the Aug 2010 Income portfolio on a 51% portfolio capital investment. As you may know, since mid of April 2010 we reduced our capital allocation to trading as we were anticipating this market meltdown which started around 3-4th week of April. For Sept 2010 opened portfolios, we are up +4.3% and these results do not include results from speculative/bonus trades.

    This is our 31st positive month, out of a total 33 months of Paid Subscription based OptionPundit newsletter throughout the phase-1 and phase-2 and these times include one of the worst market conditions since the 1930s.

    At present, OPNewsletter clients include ordinary part-time traders to professional Wall Street traders (trading their personal accounts) from over 20 countries and their trading experience varies from a few years to almost 2 decades of options trading. The live forum lives to help where community of traders share ideas and comment on other’s trades as well. Not only we do Iron Condor, we also invest Calendars, diagonals, double diagonals, backspread and many more. We have also started reviewing (with real-money) option trades for newly introduced weeklies (currently AAPL is up +24%, AMZN is up +30% and GOOG is almost breakeven). This is how whole trading experience comes to live real time.

    Trade what you know, learn what you don’t know !

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

    Delivering consistency isn’t about trading 1 Iron Condor/month for a small size capital account. When you are trading a US$100,000 account that requires patience, discipline, a well defined control over greed & fear and strategies that are beyond just 1 Iron Condor. And there are many traders in OPNewsletter who trade with over US$100,000 capital. Preserving capital then takes higher priority order as opposed to investing every opportunity you see. At times, you will let go opportunities (hindsight bias) in anticipation of major market moves that might derail the portfolios. We place hedges, which sometimes are one of the dampeners for higher results but that’s ok, that’s part-n-parcel of trading life.

    No matter how much marketing blitz would like you to believe, there is no “secret” to trading success; it is the EXTRA DEGREE of perseverance, EXTRA DEGREE of risk management, EXTRA DEGREE of disciplined trading, EXTRA DEGREE of what if scenario planning and EXTRA DEGREE of “Rational Expectations”.

    Welcome to OptionPundit! The EXTRA DEGREE in your option trading.

    If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only.

  • Priceline- How Did We Make Triple Digit Gains

    Backspread Option Trading Strategy is one of my favorite strategies when it comes to playing large move and when I am not so sure of the direction. I like to play it especially when I am biased about the direction but I don’t want to take unnecessary risk.

    I first introduced this spread to OP readers almost 3.5 years back and since then we have done a lot of trades using backspreads. Recent one is how we played Priceline (PCLN) earnings and netted with Several hundred % gains within a day. Here is what I wrote to OPNewsletter members before opening this speculative trade-

    I have purchased a PCLN Aug 240/250 Backspread for $1.68 average (Sell 1x Aug 240 and Buy Aug 2x 250), assume this will be 100% before you invest anything.

    The maximum loss (roughly $1,125) will be if a) PCLN is at 250 and b) Nothing is done to the trade till expiration. If you would like to know more about backspread, here is the link -> https://www.optionpundit.net/options-essentials/backspread-startegy-for-large-moves

    I expect PCLN to move ~10%, and I am directionally biased but I want to minimize my risk and hence playing it via backspread.

    The results – PCLN gapped up almost $42!! and continued to move-up throughout the day; the mid quoted price for our $1.68 Backspread was $20.3!! Some members were quick to book profit (which is a good thing to do) and closed it for $16, netting +814% gains on debit or 121% including margins. I sold it for $18.1 as I want to max out profits so closed it leg by leg, but then PCLN just kept on rising all the way to $286!! (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Another member played this earnings via Call Debit vertical spread and netted out with +450%. Below is a screen shot of my trades. As you will notice I purchased puts also assuming that PCLN might pullback after rising $50 in a day.

    Fantastic returns by any means. But OPNewsletter members include some very experienced traders who would like to know why we chose this strategy (and had to keep $1,000) margins, thus reducing our gains as opposed to verticals. Here is an exchange of words between two OPN Members (I took the liberty to cut & paste it from paid forum) that provides a lot of insights which you may not find elsewhere –

    I was running a bit too fast, sold for $16. Well, “only” 814% gain on debit or 121% on margin. Thanks OP!!!!!!!!

    OP, I was curious why you preferred the backspread. I understand that the main advantage of the backspread is that you can do it for even money or even credit, so even if you are wrong, you still can exit for breakeven or even small profit. However, in this case, we paid debit, so if PCLN tanked, we would probably lose most of the debit paid. Why is better than say simple bull spread?

    In the true spirit of learning while making money, I challenged my friend to think about it again and share what he find. Here are his thoughts-

    Well, as you wrote in your original post, backspread has the potential to make money in either direction, as you do it for credit. So even if you are wrong, you can still make money.

    But this is not true in our case since we did it for debit. Comparing profits with say 260/280 bull spread that Chak did for slightly higher debit (but no margin requirements), the backspread returned about 800-900% on debit and about 130% on margin, and bull spread returned about 500%. So return on debit was definitely better for backspread. If PCLN went down, both would probably lose most of the debit. I’m not sure what would happen if PCLN went to 250-260 as you expected.

    But again, the main point is that in our case backspread lost its main advantage because it was done for debit and not credit.

    And there here is the answer from another member who made 450% using verticals. Review for insights and the detailed work he has done before placing the trade. A good example of due diligence.

    Allow me to add to this why I did a debit call vertical. I was expecting about a 12% drop in volatility after earnings and only expected a 10% movement, as did OP. If this is your expectations, it paints a different picture. Both trades would have been up about $300 if we went up 10% to $253 (from $230). Based on debit, the backratio would have had a slightly larger percentage gain. Also, our breakevens for today would have been both around PCLN = $242. (Actually, the backratio would have been around $243, the vertical about $241.) But, due to the IV drop, the backratio would have lost money a lot quicker below the $240 level. If we didn’t move at all, the backratio would have incurred a full loss of the debit (-100% of debit), but the vertical would have only lost about 60%. A max loss of the debit would have been down around PCLN=210 for the vertical and 235 (above the closing price!) for the backratio.

    So, taking the -12% drop in IV and 10% expected move, I believed the vertical’s risk/reward was more attractive. Both were expected to make ~$300 if correct, but if wrong, the backratio incurred a max loss over much more of the PCLN range.

    That said, in the rare case that your 10% expected move turns into a 20% move, the backratio will do considerably better if you got the direction correct.

    So as you can see, there was a good reason for doing vertical debit spread and it paid out nicely for the money invested. This is really the true spirit of improving as a trader where you could look at each past trade and think what could have been better, is there something that can be learned.  Here is further discussion between the two members-

    Well, on hindsight, you could just go with 260 calls for similar debit (about 2.50) and have 900% return. 270 calls would risk only 1.30 and give you 1,300% return. Of course hindsight is always 20/20, but most of those trades would risk only relatively small amount for potential of making few hundred percent.

    Thoughts from 2nd member to this-

    I believe the analysis was done based on a 10% move (see OP’s original post). The $2.50 260 call would have been worth about $400 assuming a move to 253. Still a good trade, and quite possibly better than the other 2 trades.

    As a true option trader, the learning never stops. As someone said, If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. We made real gains on this trade, but the discussion didn’t stop there.  I am proud of OPN community as it challenges the thoughts and through those conversations, we discover many more opportunities. Both the members gave me some ideas to think about when placing the trades in future. (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is open via invitation only)

    Here are my thoughts on why I chose backspread-

    I expected a +10% move, but the key difference was that I also wanted to have room for upside what if I am correct and what if there is a huge short squeeze shortly after the positive announcement. A good Backspread would be making money even if the underlying moves against. But here in this trade, as I originally mentioned I was directionally bias but wanted to reduce my exposure while maximize gains if I am correct. What essentially this Backspread did was to purchase a 250 call but financed most of the cost via selling a 240/250 bear call spread. Additionally, PCLN’s intraday moves are also fairly large from a absolute $ perspective and we still had 15 days time left to salvage the trade if needed.

    Bottomline– Verticals, straight calls or backspread are all different strategies suited for different option traders. All have a role to play as long as are clear on objective of each one.

    Porfitable Trading and Learning

    OP @InvesCafe

  • Goldman Sachs (GS)- A Potentially Profitable Opportunity

    Goldman Sachs (GS) is down $40 since April 16th; How much more it has to lose? Anybody’s guess is probably better than mine. Regardless of whatever I think, I guess they are too big, powerful and connected to go under.

    With that bullish bias, here is a trade idea that potentially can deliver excellent results on upside. But wait a min, what if I am wrong? It can still make some gains on downside as long as GS is either above $159.4 or below $130.6 by June expiration. Pls don’t read any further if you think GS will remain in between these strikes by June expiration and/or if you can’t adjust the trade for risk/profits beforehand.

    Before you read further, I suggest reading about backspread so you are familiar with this wonderful strategy.

    (If you are not an OPNewsletter member and would like to sign-up, pls click here to sign-up for the waitlist as OPNewsletter subscription is via invitation only)

    (more…)

  • How to Play Alcoa (AA) Earnings?

    Aloca (AA) is set to announce earnings after close today. Wall Street is expecting a fall to -$0.55 to -$0.57 EPS depending upon who do you follow (Zacks, First Call etc). The quarter was not that exciting, hence the expectation are already factored for a very poor quarter. I think the movement will depend on the extent of swing of losses in either direction. My personal bias is that will beat these lowered numbers (probably on ground of higher discounts to liquidate inventory, etc.) . Worth watching though is the Gross/operating Margins.

    Earnings related trades are speculative and hence there is 50/50 chance of being correct. So, How to play this?

    aa-earnings-apr-09Earlier I mentioned about a beautiful strategy to play large moves, called “Backspread” strategy. Here is a Trade Idea-

    While I would like to play upside I also want to protect myself for any negative announcement and hence negative stock reaction. I am planning to open a April 6/7.5 2:3 Call ratio spread i.e. Sell Apr Calls 2X and Buy April 7.5 Calls 3X. This will yield about $1.50 credit. The Max I can lose by April expiration is $150. My break even points are $6.73 and $9 by April expiration.  As long as AA moves beyond this range, this trade will be able to make money.

    What’s the catch– Tomorrow morning the IV will drop like a stone as the news will be out and stock will move. The worse case, the IV drops and stock doesn’t move. For this trade to make money, stock has to move.

    There are other ways to book profits. For instance, if AA drops heavily then close the 6 calls buy buying it back cheaper and sell the 7.5calls when AA bounce a little upwards. But this all requires intra day trading skills/maneuvering.

    Don’t try this if a) you are not willing to lose and b) you don’t how to profit from it even if it goes against your plan.

    Disclaimer– As of this writing I own this spread. I may change my position anytime without notice.

    Profitable Trading, OP