It feels good to see when your investments goes up despite market turmoil. I am +126% in 2007 and up a nice 10.1% for Jan’08 income trades already. I shall later be posting “Ten Factors” that contributed to my good year in 2007 for your read.
Let’s look at markets first. Long time OP readers know that since Oct I had been bearish on the stock market. I was reminded, rightfully so, that since 1930 markets went-up 80% of the time between Thanksgiving and Jan 5th (1st week of the yeat)..this time..oouch. Based on numerology 2007 was supposed to be bad, but it was not that bad for stock markets. And 2008 is supposed to be good but so far it isn’t. Oil was told to be overbought by all the big guns, but it touched $100 and shows no signs of sell-off. The point I am making here is not to say I can predict markets better, but to suggest “Embrace Uncertainty“. Bottom line in this game is to make money. As long as you can keep your investment strategies and risk management plan “Agile”, your portfolio will dance very well to the tunes of the market. Money is made via surprises. If everyone knows it, thank you, bye bye.
We are almost at a point where we were during last week of November. Rather it is in a bad situation as this was supposed to be one of the most bullish weeks of the year. Those who are chartist probably know it much better. Dow 50 day MA has already cut Dow 200 days MA, for the first time in nearly 2 years and that’s not good. I have marked two key points to watch, one is Nov’07 low and other one is Aug’07 low. The story is same for SPX but worst for RUT as RUT has broken Aug low levels already.
Few days back I was chatting with Bill Luby, author of an excellent blog on VIX (and more) (Vix and More) and I shared my straight opinion. “Cool Sh**t is to hit the fan, but so far none has been able to figure out how to run out of the room and lock the door before it hits the fan”. Markets are holding quite well despite all the news. SWFs are making waves (right or wrong). The only certainty I am seeing is in Gold, Agriculture and Oil (or alternate energy). I have been reminding my bullish bias on gold and I think it won’t stop in a corrective way before it reaches $940-950.
I am liking it, and hopefully you are too, have fun trading profitably, OP