“O-BenTi” Trio Might Finally be Winning

By | Investment Strategy, Market Psychology, US Market | 3 Comments

Obama, Ben and Tim (O-BenTi, I just created this name to save writing space) might finally be winning the recession war (only time will tell whether or not it is sustainable or going to result in another bubble). Their “glimmer of hope” campaign seems to be working nicely; even the consumer sentiment index says so, offering a hint that the deepest part of the recession may be passing. According to Bloomerg : Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose solidly to 61.9 vs. 57.3 two weeks ago. Interestingly, one-year inflation expectations shot up 1 full percentage point to 3.0 percent….

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As Bad As It Gets

By | Daily Report, US Market | No Comments

U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged by over half million, a bad surprise of 533,000 job losses in November. This is the worst job loss in 34 years according to the Labor Department. Since the recession began 11 months ago, nearly 2 million jobs have been lost. As per marketwatch story, The unemployment rate rose from 6.5% in October to 6.7% in November, the highest jobless rate since October 1993. Although the market expected to hear bad news from the November employment report, no one expected news as bad as we got. Economists expected job losses of around 350,000 in November. Job losses in September…

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Where are the Markets Heading?

By | Investment Strategy, Market Psychology, Technical Analysis, US Market | 5 Comments

Below charts and rough technical analysis is not to paint a grim picture but is rather an attempt to define a range for the downside. It’s better to develop trading plans with the worst case scenario in mind vs. developing plans on pure hopes and dreams. I don’t argue that equities are starting to show value and in fact I am already working to develop an OPN value portfolio design to double in next 5-6 years riding on the trends that are about to emerge in the new world post financial crisis clean-up. I think no one can time the…

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Panic Before Everyone Else Does

By | Market Psychology | No Comments

Market forecasting is one thing and profiting from it is altogether another thing. OPNewsletter subscribers know how accurate so far my warnings had been and I did panic before everyone else did but did I benefit by opening pure bearish trades? In the hindsight, I could have made a killing but did I? No! Sure it did help me in unloading my bullish positions though. In spite of having such an accurate forecast I couldn’t reap extra ordinary benefits from it. I thought through this and here is the part of my trading decision making. Bear markets tend to have quick…

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Get Real or Go Home

By | Market Psychology, US Market, Worldwide Markets | 2 Comments

It took almost 5 years of Bull markets for Auzzie $ to reach its peak against US$ and just 5months to give it all back. The picture is not so much different for British Pound as well. The once mighty US$ is back with full force, against all convetional wisdom and doomsday forecasts, and almost all currencies have given-up vs. US$ except JPY. The 2nd largest economy’s currency is standing tall against US$. It has appreciated to 95 a U$, a level not seen in the last decade. Billions, if not trillions, have been made or lost in the Forex markets…

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OPNewsletter : Oct’08 (+9%)

By | OP Newsletter, Past Performance | No Comments

What a tubulent week! For the week ending Oct 17, here is the market tally. Dow closed at +4.7%, S&P500 almost similar +4.7%, NDX: +3.3%, Nasdaq (COMPQ) +3.6% and Russell 2000 almost flat at +0.75%. For OPNewsletter, it was rather an unusual month. We opened one mini-portfolio consisting of options in Russell 2000, that was officially closed for +9% gains including commissions. Thereafter sensing market collapse I stayed away from investing for OPNewsletter we were in cash throughout the past 4weeks. Cash surely outperformed the market during which Dow lost almost 3,000 points. The results doesn’t include my trade alerts for speculative trades…

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