Iron Condor

Earnings preview Apple AAPL

By | Earnings | No Comments

Apple (AAPL) is set to report its highly anticipated June results today i.e. July 24, after the market close. Besides Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) is another popular stock with option tarders to play earnings. What to Expect: According to, here is what traders are expecting: The Street expects Q3 EPS to grow 33% year-over-year to $10.38 and revenues to grow 31% YoY to $37.43 bln. Not surprisingly, the Street estimates are above the company’s typically conservative guidance of EPS of $8.68 and revenues of ~$34 bln issued on the Q2 release (April). Yet the Street has set relatively low…

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Another Way to Play Priceline (PCLN) Earnings

By | Earnings, Investment Strategy, Iron Condor, Trade Ideas | 4 Comments

Priceline (PCLN) is set to report it’s earning after market close today. According to, consensus is $9.29 for EPA while revenue consensus is $1.416 billion. During the past 8 quarters PCLN has consistent outperformed the expectations, usually by a wide margin. Based on current Implied Volatility, it is expected to move roughly $36-$38 in either direction. If you look at the IV profile, there is a huge SKEW between Nov weekly and Nov, and then in Dec and Jan series as well. Going into earings, IV is highly elevated as well. It’s no secret that IV will crash after…

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How to Play Google (GOOG) Earnings

By | Butterfly spread, Earnings, Iron Condor, Iron Fly, OP Newsletter, Option Trading, Option Trading Strategy, Trade Ideas | No Comments

How to play Google (GOOG) earnings and how to benefit from Implied volatility crush post google earnings is on the minds on almost every option traders I have met or spoken to. But before I proceed further let me share that earnings are usually 50/50 at best i.e. in-spite of complete detailed research you may still end-up being wrong. The chances of win are 50%. If you go with that assumption and are willing to take increased risks for potential windfalls, Google (GOOG) Certainly offers great opportunities for option traders. I have been covering Google earnings for almost 4 years. I also provided 4 different…

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Ms Vega is Here to Stay

By | General, Option Trading | 3 Comments

Pls allow me introduce you to Ms Vega. Ms Vega is my personification for Implied Volatility.  As of this writing, there is almost 3% IV difference for SPY ATM options, VIX is at 24, VIX Oct futures are at 30, a 25% difference!! Though nothing is certain in the markets, this skew does indicate that market participants are “unusually uncertain”. Stock markets are an interesting place as Market participants tend to have a short memory. With a few percent market rally, bears turn into bull and vice versa and most often the reason is “when the facts change, I change…

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OPNewsletter Jul 2010 Up +8.3%

By | Butterfly spread, Calendar spread, Double Diagonal, Iron Condor, OP Newsletter, Option Trading, Option Trading Strategy, Past Performance, US Market | No Comments

We are on track for our 28th positive month of OPNewsletter phase-2, as of last Friday close OPNewsletter Jul 2010 portfolio is up +8.3% on the maximum investment of almost 60% of portfolio capital. We have started opening Aug 2010 portfolios and our first portfolio is already positive. Let’s talk consistency first, especially on trades like Iron condor which is probably the most widely used option trading strategy. OPNewsletter has lost only 1 month of RUT iron condor since May 2008, and the drawdown was only 7.15% while gains have been around 12% on average per month. RUT Iron Condor for…

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OPNewsletter May +18%, June +5.3% (Open)

By | OP Newsletter, Past Performance, US Market, Worldwide Markets | 2 Comments

Another turbulent and volatile period! Last week started with a huge gap up rally after EU announced a $1trillion bailout package but by weekend it was a different story. Now there are questions on how solid it was. The confidence barometer, Euro, is now 4 years low and maybe even headed for $ parity as I wonder if EU will really step in to avoid Euro slide.  They should be pretty excited as EU economy may get much needed push with a weaker Euro. For OPNewsletter, we are 77% in cash. Remainder of the cash is invested across 3 income…

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