Stocks Watch List for Earnings

23 Jul 2008 In: Earnings and Trade Ideas

There are several big names who are announcing earings today after market close or tomorrow before market opens. Here are the key tickers I am analyzing-

POT, BNI, AMZN, BIDU, CMG, FFIV, NTRI, IVGN, WFR

If you are an OPNewsletter subscriber, pls check the forum on how am I planning to play some of these and also my allocation guidelines.

Profitable trading, OP

Pre-Market and Apple Update

23 Jul 2008 In: Daily Report and Intraday Trading

Even though the markets have been rallying recently I am not yet convinced. But I don’t fight with the markets and cautiously follow the turning points. Oil is down, Gold is down, financials are up and so is the transport. REITs are also starting to show signs of strength. Whatever you make out of it, be a little more cautious on every rally.

Here are some names for pre-market activity-

Gapping Up: NIHD, ISRG PHLY, CNH, WYE, GD, ILMN, WHR, WLP, and MCD

Gapping Down: COST, CHRW, ZMH, VMW, BJ, ABFS, ADCT

Apple had quite an amazing show. Before markets opened, here is what I mentioned to OPN subscribers for a bullish speculative scenario-

AAPL- A Bullish trade. This is not for everyone. This is purely speculative and you my lose all your investments and hence capital allocation is extremely important. Nothing more than 2-3%.

AAPL is down nearly $16 in the pre-market activity. Overall market futures are down as well, so expect it to be a bearish day…(except something interesting surfaces). I have generally observed that AAPL is good in guiding very conservatively and beat those nicely when the actual reports are shared. There is nothing majorly wrong in the results they have reported except the outlook and some concerns on margins. Which is what taking the stock down with it.

I however think, $148-$150 area will prove to be a support area and within a few days it should recover some grounds and don’t be surprised if it fills the gap. (It may not results this way and that’s why I call it speculative).

so a call diagonal, or a bull put spread or a bull call debit spread or bullish calendar maybe something good to look so that the risk is contained. BUT don’t do anything especially in the initial 30mins as you wouldn’t know if you are paying the right price (unless you are very very clear on the price you are paying is correct one). IV will also be tricky, it will be down but I don’t know when and how, specially for initial 30mins. Logic wouldn’t apply.

So here we go, look for a bullish opportunity once AAPL finds a bottom today. And if you do make profits, book it, don’t leave for next day …profit taking never hurts.

And rest is history now. After hitting a low of $146.5, it closed at $162. If you are an OPNewsletter subscriber, check out the “Directional (Non-OPN)” thread for my current holding on Apple. This was not part of OPN but a bonus one as part of speculative alerts. I shall update it when I close it today. We shall reapply similar strategy for some underlying in the up-coming days.

Profitable trading, OP

Pre-Market Active

22 Jul 2008 In: Intraday Trading

There is lot going on the in the pre-market. Here are some noteworthy names for some intra-day trading.

Gapping Up: WGOV, STLD, BJS, BHI, CAT, QLGC; BP, TOT. Gapping Down: TXN, AXP, V, MICC, AAPL, MRK, SNDK, AIB, VOD, EXP, PWRD

My personal bias is to play bearish ones as it appears this is going to be a bearish day, at least based on futures action in the pre-market.

Profitable trading, OP

The Week Ahead

21 Jul 2008 In: Earnings and US Market

It’s going to be an action packed week from earnings perspective. Apart from watching their results, keep an eye on what are they saying about the future. Guidance is going to play an important role. If you are planning to play large swings on earnings, don’t forget formula I mentioned earlier-

Large Swing in price = Beat/Miss Earnings + Beat/Miss Revenue + Raise/ Lower Guidance on both revenue and earnings. And as a fine prints don’t forget to look at the operating margins.

I had shared a lot of ways to play earnings, both directional as well non-directional. Browse through the website (Key word - Earnings) to find out the way that suits you. Some (a lot actually) of the names that are on my list includes-

Monday: Bank of America (BAC), American Express (AXP), Apple (AAPL), Texas Instruments (TXN), SanDisk (SNDK), QLogic (QLGC), Merck (MRK), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Weatherford (WFT

Tuesday: Wachovia (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), KeyCorp (KEY), Fifth Third (FITB), SunTrust (STI), E*Trade (ETFC), United Parcel Service (UPS), Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), PACCAR (PCAR), Precision Castparts (PCP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Yahoo (YHOO), Broadcom (BRCM), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), XTO Energy (XTO), Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BHI), Nabors Industries (NBR)

Wednesday: Boeing (BA), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), EMC, Pulte Homes (PHM), Pfizer (PFE), Wyeth (WYE), Peabody Energy (BTU), ConocoPhillips (COP), PepsiCo (PEP), McDonalds (MCD), QUALCOMM (QCOM), MEMC (WFR), Terex (TEX), Whirlpool (WHR), Allegheny Technologies (ATI), General Dynamics (GD), Noble (NE), WellPoint (WLP)

Thursday: 3M (MMM), Union Pacific (UNP), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Dow Chemical (DOW), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Starwood Hotels (HOT), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Suncor (SU), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Smith International (SII), Newmont Mining (NEM), Western Digital (WDC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Celgene (CELG), Potash (POT), Bunge (BG), Diamond Offshore (DO), Bucyrus (BUCY), Franklin Resources (BEN)

Friday: T. Rowe Price (TROW), Legg Mason (LM), Arch Coal (ACI), Black and Decker (BDK), and Netflix (NFLX)

Profitable trading, OP

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OPN Performance

This assumes a $10,000 starting and fully invested capital. The current phase started when OPNewsletter was re-opened in Jan'08 for Feb'08 expiration. OPN Month is counted as 3rd Friday of each month same as US Equity option expiration day. Comparison with S&P500 or Dow is not shown as it's unfair to expect from such large institution to deliver high returns. I would rather compare with my own target.

OPN Performance (Current) - http://sheet.zoho.com

The Phase-1 assumes from May 2007 till Jan 2008 and starting fully invested capital of $10,000.

OPN Performance (Phase-1) - http://sheet.zoho.com

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  • Sep'07 +6.9%
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  • Nov'07 +17.1%
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