Unusual Options Activity

10 Apr 2007 In: Daily Report

Here it came, it flew, it made me nervous, it again flew and flew again. Have you also felt same monitoring DNDN? I first noticed this in Kingsland report and also when analyzing AGIX. It had spectacular ride. Amidst biotech conference, it seems that traders are now cautious. There was heavy volume in DNDN yesterday across all the strikes and of course both sides i.e. call and put. It started to gain momentum from the time AGIX tanked. Is it is a good time to get into DNDN, not sure? A final decision from U.S. regulators on Provenge is expected by May 15 though.

 

However, there is something else interesting brewing up and that is NUVO. It saw very heavy volume around $5 and $7.5 strikes yesterday. Interesting strike was $7.5, 3004 contracts traded vs. 387 open interests. NUVO rose 52% amidst biotech conference. The small biotech group said it plans to present data from animal studies for its NU206 drug candidate at a scientific meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research on Saturday, April 14. Nuvelo has been testing the compound for a variety of applications, including cancer and inflammatory bowel disease. For those who are new to NUVO, this was trading roughly at $21 till the beginning of this year. Sure though, IV will rise till this Friday. I might get into this but shall trade very carefully.

nuvo.png    dndn-april-10-07.png

Other sector that is heating-up is coal. OptionMonster had mentioned last week that ANR, CNX and BTU have seen unusual activity that has seen ticker shooting for the moon. The key reason for this rise is attributed to a possible buyout by Arch Coal (ACI).

On the bearish side, interesting ticker is Dollar General (DG) that saw heavy trading for $20 put for May and Aug. Confusing thing is that there is heavy open interest on 20 and 17.5 for Aug (roughly 23K each) but volume was roughly 10K for Aug and 10K for May (vs open interest of only 970 for May). Something bearish is brewing here, but I shall research this one a bit more before diving in.

dg-april-10.png

Stay tuned, profitable trading, OptionPundit

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Week Ahead (April 9,07)

9 Apr 2007 In: Daily Report

Other then Friday, rest of the week ahead seems to be quiet. PPI data and international trade data will be released on Friday that could potentially move the market in either direction. Today, Asia was mostly up. Hong Kong, Singapore, India, China all were up led by nearly 1.5% rise in Japan. Weaker yen is attributed for rise in the stock markets.

 

Earning season is starting to soar. Infosys will be in focus when it announces results on Friday before market. I surely want to play it and shall assess later on which strategy will be a good one to tap into this opportunity. However, I will spend most time to find good opportunities for the next week as that is April option expiration week when premium will be cheaper due to very little time value. I might also open some calendar or butterflies for potential pinning action as theta will gain from rapid decay. My NKE DC ($52.5 and $55) is also in good shape as I am looking for pinning action near to any of these two strikes but not very far barring exceptions.

 

Stay tuned, profitable trading, OptionPundit

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Viewbar is ready for download

7 Apr 2007 In: AGLOCO

Here is an update on my Agloco economic network:

The viewbar is ready for download for early members whose code is starting from AGLO, BBBB to BBBF. So those whose code is starting from any of these numbers, pls check your e-mails to download the viewbar. Here is the top level financial analysis on Agloco and its worth. The valuation conclusions are based on AGLOCO reaching two million users in a two year time span:

  • A user who has no referrals should receive ownership in AGLOCO worth on average about $150. (plus monthly cash distributions)
  • The average value of an AGLOCO user’s referral network should be $30 each in ownership shares plus the referrer’s share of monthly cash distribution.
  • The average AGLOCO direct referral should be worth in excess of $3,000 each (see report for details).
  • The analysis also shows a range of monthly cash distributions of between $5 and $15 a month per user.
  • The AGLOCO business model looks theoretically sound – (assuming they get to a decent size quickly - at least 500,000 users within nine months to a year)

What’s the basis for all this; check out the detailed financial report hereà http://simmonsreport.spaces.live.com/
 

By the way, if you don’t know, let me refresh some facts:

  • Google alone last year earned more than US$ 3 billion from internet alone.
  • America On Line (AOL) earns US$0.10 for every search you do on internet via Google.
  • Online retailers like Amazon.com pay 4%-6% commission for every purchase made via their websites that’s roughly half a billion in commission from Amazon alone.
  • AllAdvantage paid more than US$120 millions just to surf internet using their toolbar.
  • As per current estimates, worldwide advertising industry is over US$385 billion. Internet advertising even at mere 10% market share is estimated US$38.5 billions. And it’s growing well over 15% per year.  So someone makes money every time you visit a website and/or click an ad. 

And so far, Agloco has already signed-up with 17 Ad networks, which simply means together with some direct advertising deals provide AGLOCO with thousands of advertisers with thousands of ads for the Viewbar software.

If you have not joined it yet, click here to on-board (this is my referral Url) http://www.Agloco.com/r/BBBW0424
 

Profitable trading,OptionPundit

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OPN Performance

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