Arguably, the most favorite stock for option traders is going to announce 4th Qtr earning results on Jan 31, 2007. This stock market darling has never (except once) missed the earning in the past.
| SYMBOL |
PERIOD |
EPS ESTIMATE |
EPS ACTUAL |
PREV. YEAR ACTUAL |
DATE/TIME (ET) |
| GOOG | Q4 2006 | $ 2.90 | n/a | $ 1.54 | 31-Jan-07 |
| GOOG | Q3 2006 | $ 2.42 | $ 2.62 | $ 1.51 | 19-Oct-06 AMC |
| GOOG | Q2 2006 | $ 2.22 | $ 2.49 | $ 1.36 | 20-Jul-06 |
| GOOG | Q1 2006 | $ 1.97 | $ 2.29 | $ 1.29 | 20-Apr-06 |
| GOOG | Q4 2005 | $ 1.76 | $ 1.54 | $ 0.92 | 31-Jan-06 |
| GOOG | Q3 2005 | $ 1.36 | $ 1.51 | $ 0.70 | 20-Oct-05 |
| GOOG | Q2 2005 | $ 1.21 | $ 1.36 | $ 0.58 | 21-Jul-05 |
| GOOG | Q1 2005 | $ 0.92 | $ 1.29 | $ 0.53 | 21-Apr-05 |
| GOOG | Q4 2004 | $ 0.77 | $ 0.92 | n/a | 1-Feb-05 AMC |
| GOOG | Q3 2004 | $ 0.56 | $ 0.70 | n/a | 21-Oct-04 AMC |
Source: Above data is from http://www.earnings.com/ (an essential tool in OptionPundit’s toolbox).
Below is a snapshot from Reuters on what Wall Street is expecting from GOOG. If you observe from the below trends, you will notice that there are mixed signals. While revenues are rising across different time span, earnings are not. Earning estimates are trending up for both this qtr and next year, but declining for next qtr.
Consensus Estimates Trend
| In U.S. Dollars |
Current |
1 Week Ago |
1 Month Ago |
2 Months Ago |
1 Year Ago |
| Revenue (in Millions) |
|||||
| Q4: 12/2006 | 3,135.10 | 3,122.83 | 3,122.73 | 3,121.07 | 2,819.46 |
| Q1: 03/2007 | 3,510.41 | 3,510.76 | 3,509.43 | 3,501.09 | 3,199.03 |
| FY: 2006 | 10,534.37 | 10,522.52 | 10,522.44 | 10,519.40 | 9,483.51 |
| FY: 2007 | 15,231.49 | 15,194.50 | 15,169.00 | 15,176.62 | 12,898.47 |
| EPS |
|||||
| Q4: 12/2006 | 2.90 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 2.87 | 2.52 |
| Q1: 03/2007 | 3.23 | 3.24 | 3.25 | 3.24 | 2.83 |
| FY: 2006 | 10.32 | 10.31 | 10.33 | 10.31 | 8.76 |
| FY: 2007 | 13.90 | 13.87 | 13.86 | 13.79 | 11.97 |
How to make money from this announcement based on mixed signals? Well, Let’s start our jorney of exploring GOOG.
I would very much appreciate your comments, feedback and perspective. Keep pouring in ideas !!
Here is Part-2
Profitable trading,
OptionPundit
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