US markets are not making much progress for the past two days. Or is it the resting period before any major move? or is it waiting for any major economic indicator to support move in either direction?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the drop in U.S. home prices will probably end “well before” early next year as the number of houses on the market diminishes, aiding an economic rebound. “It will not be until early 2009 that we will get close to having eliminated most of this home inventory, Greenspan told a conference in Tokyo today sponsored by Deutsche Bank AG and co-hosted by Bloomberg LP. “But it is very likely that home prices will stabilize well before that.” I am not sure how much you can rely on the words from someone who is often referred to one who created this bubble.
Along the same lines, here are few words from PIMCO chief, from Bill Gross’s Apr Market outlook:
Whatever it is, I think XHB (Home Builders SPDR) may provide some indication on how home industry is going to perform. We saw a jump from low of nearly $15 to current $23. Right now it almost resting at 200DMA as well 61.8% fib retracement. Is it saying that we have bottomed already? I think too early to say I am bullish, but in order to be more bearish it needs to fall below $15.
VISA (V) is slowly making progress towards its IPO opening day high i.e. $69. It crossed previous high of $67.5 and is at an all time high close. VISA announced earnings date, Apr 28, 2008 and I am sure executives (who got Visa shares at $44) don’t want to disappoint the Wall street if they want to cash in from the VISA shares. is this the reason that is driving strength in the stock price? Also check the recent pattern, High on High volumes, low on low volumes. I am bullish and am playing bullish strategies on the stock but at the same time protecting against a modest fall.
Profitable trading, OP
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realinvestor
April 9th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Hi OP,
It is ironic that I was just looking at the XHB chart yesterday using Elliot Wave. Here is my take on this.
1) Form the low in beginning of 2008, XHB has moved to 38.2% retracement
2) Currently it is in A-B-C corrective pattern in the C wave.
3) For XHB to trend lower the retracement should preferably be between 38.2%-61.8%
4) So I was expecting the market to complete the C wave before putting the trade on the short side.
Personally I do not prefer to trade the C wave as the correction can be simple or complex.
realinvestor
Tony Chai
April 11th, 2008 at 3:38 am
Hi OP :
Wonder Whether Visa (V) would do a gap up after earnings like MasterCard (MA) in their 1st two earnings announcement right after their IPO.. maybe I shouldn’t have commented this and let the market makers have an excuse to jack up the options premium now
Regards,
Tony Chai
P.S. GOOG is reporting earnings next week, would re-look how you’ve traded this counter formerly during earnings.
OptionPundit
April 13th, 2008 at 5:31 am
Thanks for sharing realinvestor…Tony, Yes, I plan to play GOOG and VISA both.