PCLN (+27.9%, +141%)

9 May 2008 In: Past Performance, Trade Ideas

Here are the results of PCLN trades , +20.5% , +27.9% and +141% for three different types of strategies as mentioned in the OPNewsletter’s member’s only section of the forum.

Profitable trading, OP

, , ,

Priceline (PCLN) blew past first-quarter estimates as per its report after market close on Thursday. It also raised its outlook on soaring European bookings and a hefty boost from consumers hunting for travel bargains. I earlier mentioned that I am bullishly biased, and that’s how I played at OPNewsletter. I shall update trade results once market opens and I close my trades. As per after market hours trading, it was up nearly $17.

The online travel provider posted earnings of $18.2 million, or 37 cents a share, in the first quarter. That compared to a loss of $16.3 million, or 44 cents, a year ago, primarily due to one-time litigation. Pro-forma earnings totaled $37.3 million, or 76 cents a share, which was well above Wall Street estimates of 60 cents a share.

First-quarter revenue for Priceline was $403.2 million, up from $301.3 million a year ago. That was well above analysts’ revenue expectations of $377 million. Gross bookings, the dollar value of all travel services bought in the quarter, jumped 76% to $1.76 billion. International bookings soared 100% to $1 billion, while domestic bookings rose 51% to $721 million, its biggest jump in more than three years.

For the full year, Priceline expects to generate $7.5 billion to $7.9 billion in gross travel bookings and earn $3.50 a share to $3.90 a share. Pro-forma earnings for the year are expected to be $5.25 a share to $5.65 a share. Analysts had expected full year earnings of $5.11 a share. For the second quarter, Priceline expects to earn 80 cents a share to 95 cents a share. Pro-forma earnings are expected to be $1.25 and $1.40. Analysts expect second-quarter earnings of $1.29.

So here we go, it was my last earning play of this week, hope to close it at solid note when market opens,

Profitable trading, OP

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Priceline (PCLN), Another Gap-up?

8 May 2008 In: Earnings

Priceline (PCLN) will announce first quarter results after market close today. Based on my analysis, I am bullishly biased on the stock, albeit the direction of stock movement post results is not as certain as it was in case of Marvel MVL. Hence just like MVL, at OPNewsletter we’ll play it while minimizing the downside or rather remove downside completely by morphing it into another trade post earning results and by buying sometime. If you are on OPN subscriber, pls lookout for my e-mail before market opens.

Priceline guided for an adjusted first-quarter profit of 50 cents to 60 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect, on average, earnings of 59 cents per share for the period. I personally expect that they will either meet or beat the estimates both on earnings and revenues. My discomfort with “uncertainty” is about the “outlook” and “margins”. In any case, I think probability is high that those will also be positive too.

priceline-before-may-earnings.pngExpedia (EXPE) posted solid results last results and I think the trends will be reflective on Priceline (PCLN) as well. A quick glance on PCLN chart will show that it has been consistently gapping-up, time and time again. Contrarians will think it will not gap-up this time, while contra-contrarian will think, it will. My take on this- If it gaps-up it will try to fill the last high i.e. in the range of $135, if it gaps down, it may be heading to $110. Take your chances on either direction you are comfortable with. A similar low risk/high reward strategy could be used, “Diagonal strategy“, as I shared free for Marvel.

Have fun, profitable trading, OP

Disclaimer : As always, this is not a recommendation. You must do your own DD before making any investment decision. I may own shares time to time of the ideas I mention here.

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OPN Performance

This assumes a $10,000 starting and fully invested capital. The current phase started when OPNewsletter was re-opened in Jan'08 for Feb'08 expiration. OPN Month is counted as 3rd Friday of each month same as US Equity option expiration day. Comparison with S&P500 or Dow is not shown as it's unfair to expect from such large institution to deliver high returns. I would rather compare with my own target.

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