IBM

I used to think that if I hold stocks in my portfolio and if the price continue to rise it’s good for my portfolio. It still holds true as I can sell it higher at anytime and pocket the gains (minus the taxes etc as applicable). However, when I was looking at Mr Buffett’s holding IBM to find out if I should start buying it as the prices are lower vs what Warren Buffett paid, I re-discovered this interesting perspective –

Here is how Warren Buffett invested in IBM-
Buffett began to buy IBM shares in the first quarter of 2011, with 4,517,774 shares for a price of $159 on average. Purchasing became more aggressive in the second and third quarter when he cumulatively bought more than 82.2 million shares for $167 and $173 on average. From the fourth quarter of 2011, to the third quarter of 2012, he made smaller purchases at average prices ranging from $185 to $197. By the end of the third quarter, he owned a total of 67,517,896 shares, which equals 5.98% of IBM’s shares outstanding. It also made the company an 18.6% weighting in Buffett’s portfolio (source – Forbes).

As of last reporting, Berkshire owns 70,478,012 shares of IBM. The average price is estimated at ~$188. Current market price is $155.
So why Mr Buffett will really be pleased with fall or sideways pricing, Mr Buffett provides the answer himself.

“We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the [next] five years,” Buffett wrote in Berkshire’s 2012 letter to shareholders. IBM is known to spend a lot of money on share buybacks, so it only makes sense to wish for lower share prices while that train is rolling.

“The logic is simple,” Buffett wrote in 2012. “If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.”

Interesting logic. The combination of IBM’s shrinking share count and Berkshire’s further investments in the stock will result in far higher ownership stake for Mr Buffett’s company.

So, Is your company buying back shares thus reducing the numbers of shares outstanding? It seems that’s the key driver here for being pleased with the sideways or pullback of prices…

The next logical question is – Warren Buffett’s price was $188 on average, current share price is $155 and Mr Buffett doesn’t seem to be liquidating IBM, should I invest? Should I follow him?

Should I follow Warren Buffet on IBM?

As a retail trader with smaller capital base, we do have some alternatives though:

  1. Buy just plain shares: At $155 each, 1000 shares will cost U$155,000
  2. Buy 12 deep in the money call options e.g. Jan 2017 120 Call options (80 delta) for $40 each and thus investing almost $48,000 and participate in the potential upside (be aware though that you are also paying $10% of this cashflow for the time value).
  3. 3rd options is to sell naked put for your chosen price and time. You may choose many combos.
  4. Or simple own long term and sell shorter term options.

(Join OP IncomeNewsletter before subscriptions are closed before OPN subscriptions are closed once again next month).

Bottomline – There are numerous choices; HOWEVER, the key decision is “do you want to follow Mr Buffet for his IBM decision”? I would personally flow with it and use the best combination of options strategies with bullish bias,  managing risk in a way that doesn’t jeopardize my whole account. Selling naked puts does offer an interesting risk/reward vs other strategies in the current environment due to relatively higher IVs .

What do you think?

Disclaimer : As of this writing I don’t have positions on IBM and I have rounded-off the prices above for the simplicity of calculation.

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As an options trader, I prefer higher implied volatility environment and this years’s continued higher volatility continues giving more profits. A simple 20Days VIX moving average is above 18 and both 50 and 200dma are on the rising trend giving options traders for opportunities to trade. We have market neutral, long vega trades structured to benefit from time decay as well and that’s one of the key reasons to bring in nicer gains…

OPNewsletter‘s Jan’15result were +27.7% and for February 2015 it is up +3% of 60% of capital utilization. As we have a few pre-earning play such as TSLA, CSCO, WFM and BIDU, we can expect start to reap profits and reallocate the capital to different options trading strategies as earning season comes to a close.

I am planning to stop giving new memberships from next month, so if you would like to benefit together as a small group, you may want to sign-up now and don’t miss out on greater opportunity I expect on our way  during next 3 months.

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Here is what an OPN member said:

My experience with OPN is so far, excellent. You take very good care of your participants. So much so that I wonder how long you can keep it going. If you remember I indicated that your newsletter circulation by its very nature must remain small. In order for you to keep the excellent one-on-one relationships you have with your readers, you must have a limited base. Likewise from a trading standpoint, if your followings get too large you will affect the option market and defeat the purpose of the newsletter. In my limited experience, this is the only newsletter that I am aware of with direct personal responses from the writer. You are extremely open with your results, and that I believe is a benefit. From all appearances you too have skin in the game. I might say that your record is truly amazing so far. I have already learned a great deal just by watching some of the previous trades. I am astounded that selling and buying options can be made in such a way as to limit capital exposure. Unfortunately I do think of the newsletter as a self-limiting endeavor. If too many folks are locked into OPN, I think it will be difficult, if not impossible to keep your current track record. I presently feel as if I have been invited to share a secret that can not only build wealth, but also can provide an education that will allow sustained income. I don’t want that to be damaged or destroyed in the near term.

David Severy ,
Moorpark, CA, USA

Sign_up_buttonThis year is an year of change for OPN as well, Expect a lot more unconventional options trading strategies as I strongly believe we are going to see amazing profiting opportunities this year.

OPNewsletter is a complete package that includes not just the non-directional trades but also the directional trades. We trade not just the Implied volatility but also swing trades based on technical analysis. There are CALENDAR SPREADS, IRON CONDORS, VERTICAL DEBIT SPREADS, CREDIT SPREADS, BUTTERFLY SPREADS and a lot more.

If you’re still waiting on the sidelines, it’s time to join now before OPN subscriptions are closed once again next month. There are plenty of earnings and implied volatility plays.

There is NO SUBSTITUTE for experience and delivering consistent results for the past 80+ months is not kids play either. Check it out yourself, while subscriptions are still open till Mar’15, what does an ULTIMATE OPTIONS TRADING EXPERIENCE mean.

Profitable Trading, OP

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